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paxamericana

China surrendering

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20 hours ago, cannuck said:

Problem is, the US does NOT have "the best economy ever".  The bubble is the result of speculative financial parlour tricks (Casino Capitalism) NOT productive endeavour within the economy (the actual Capitalist venue).   See those endless parades of containers from China coming into every port and plugging up every road and railroad?  See those Chinese goods on every shelf in WalMart, Harbour Freight, EVERY furniture store, etc.? THAT is where wealth is created - and it is no longer on Main Street in these here hewnauted staytes.  Until the WORLD kicks Wall Street to the curb, inflation is the only growth in the US (and pent up inflationary forces).

Meanwhile, China will continue to exploit its developing nation status and produce ever more products, steal every more technology, clobber every market they enter and continue to pull far, far ahead of the USA (you may know the place - the one with $20 Trillion of debt after bailing out Wall Street and trying to make Main Street think the government can prop up an economy with "quantitative easing".)

Not from the data I've seen. The US clearly has the best economy, largest ever in fact. Those container coming from China is their dependence on trade not "domination" as you put it. America is not a import-export economy, only roughly 20 percent of our GDP is trade. America is a Consumer service based economy, making it pretty tough to fight in a trade war. Anyone who wishes to fight with us on trade will for sure be hurting a lot more than us. Look at Canada, a silly country that think it can win a trade war with the US. Mexico knows Canada want to burn so they decided to do business with the US despite Canada's demand for a trilateral agreement. 

China's growth is coming at a massive cost to its deficit. look it up. over 270 percent of their GDP is debt. America is hovering around 100. 

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5 hours ago, paxamericana said:

Not from the data I've seen. The US clearly has the best economy, largest ever in fact. Those container coming from China is their dependence on trade not "domination" as you put it. America is not a import-export economy, only roughly 20 percent of our GDP is trade. America is a Consumer service based economy, making it pretty tough to fight in a trade war. Anyone who wishes to fight with us on trade will for sure be hurting a lot more than us. Look at Canada, a silly country that think it can win a trade war with the US. Mexico knows Canada want to burn so they decided to do business with the US despite Canada's demand for a trilateral agreement. 

China's growth is coming at a massive cost to its deficit. look it up. over 270 percent of their GDP is debt. America is hovering around 100. 

The US economy looks to be very large because economists very incorrectly measure speculative activity.  This creates no wealth, but is merely a measure of what wealth is being redistributed.   A realistic and accurate example is that you own one house that you bought and can replace for $100k.  In a real estate bubble, it may sell for $1m - and that transaction gets measured as economic activity and bloats the GDP.  You still have only one house that serves the same purpose, creates the same revenue and can be replaced for $100k.  But, your economy looks to have bloomed by 10x.  Now replace your one house with one derivative - that you have fabricated on a computer at a cost of essentially nothing.   It could trade for a billion or two.   It is still worth its replacement cost - nothing.   

In any other country, this kind of nonsense would just devalue the currency, as the money supply would have to be increased to cover the settlements of 10x houses and trillionX derivatives, but at least for the time being, the Greenback printing gets covered by the panic of other central banks (such as China) who hold massive quantites of USD denominated instruments forcing them to rush into the marketplace and prop up the US currency - less it crash to its real value and wipe out the value of their instruments.  This only works as long as the Greenback enjoys hegemony - and that is sustainable only because the central bank belongs to the very same private banks who get to benefit by sending the bill for their trillionX derivative settlements to the US taxpayer (as the money supply and currency are a liability to the state, not the banks).

Yes, China increased their operating deficit to prop up the sagging economy as foolishly as did US "QE", but take a look at accumulated debt.  At $20T+, the US is in deep, deep shyte.  AND, there is no accounting for the pent up inflationary forces from the decades long run of uber-greed deals in the world of finance.  Laugh if you will, but go and speak with someone who lived through the 1929 reality of letting banks, finance and speculative transactions run out of control.

Oh (on edit), another thing I forgot to add:  In China - NOBODY reports their accurate financial data to the government.  Their GDP can not in any way be measured with any accuracy or even reasonable credibility.   I don't mean a thousand dollar a year earner reports only $500, I mean that same person driving the new BMW is reporting $500.   THAT kind of personal AND CORPORATE misrepresentation.  China as a whole is a hell of a lot bigger and more robust an economy than what the Communist Party and its central government  can or is willing to show to the world. 

Then there is the real world of Chinese families who have been offshore for a century or so, and are very much a part of China today - but show up on no Chinese economic radar.  How do you think a near bankrupt Communist China came from zero to #1 hero in a mere 25 years?  It was all about the overseas community FDI.

Edited by cannuck

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On 7/19/2018 at 1:53 AM, paxamericana said:

Looks like uncle sam is winning and winning hard. China doesn't have the power to bear its fang against US dominance. Let that be a lesson to you anti-Americans. 

Take our trade deal and avoid massive national humiliation. It's almost gunboat diplomacy all over again, forcing the Chinese to open up their financial market. 

Liu Yuhui, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and chief economist with TF Securities, a mainland brokerage, said at a forum in Beijing on Wednesday that the trade war had disrupted Beijing’s original plan of a smooth de-risking campaign but China would rather take the pain to cut debt instead of inflating the problem through fiscal expansion or monetary easing.

“There’s no other choice – China has to tighten its belt for the next three to five years,” Liu said.

“The Chinese leaders have acknowledged it does no good to go back to isolation to confront [the US],” said Larry Hu, chief China economist of Macquarie Capital in Hong Kong. “They still have their eyes on opening up.”

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/2155886/can-china-survive-trade-war-seducing-us-firms-and-fixing-economys

"On the external front, Beijing has accelerated market liberalisation. By opening up the domestic financial system, cutting tariffs and reducing hurdles for foreign direct investment (FDI), China is embracing more, not less, interaction with the outside world, unlike the protectionist US."

https://www.scmp.com/business/article/2155691/retaliate-reform-liberalise-three-ways-china-will-respond-new-us-tariffs

 

 

The anti-Trumps doesn't see him as a shrewd  businessman with his dealings.  They're used to politicians.

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10 hours ago, paxamericana said:

Right because were punched in the face for the past oh i don't know...25 years....  by deadbeat allies and trade cheats like china, Canada and many others...

The only one who is upset about it is the rest of the world for not being able to do anything when Trump decided to flex America's hegemonic power. 

The US has been going around punching in the face of nations since WWII. So again, stop complaining when you get what you dish out.   IF you want to trot around the world, get you better have a plan to pay for the plethora of military bases around the world. No one forced the US into that position. They chose that, so again I would not complain if no one else wants to pitch in and help pay for military projection.

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10 hours ago, paxamericana said:

 America is not a import-export economy, only roughly 20 percent of our GDP is trade. America is a Consumer service based economy, making it pretty tough to fight in a trade war.

That puts the USA in a more dire situation. Since manufacturing is not happening to the scale as it was decades ago, then if no one wants to spend money in the US by going to the US, then that service industry takes a hit. When Americans cannot afford to import some of the items they need to run those service industries it creates a problem.

 

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On 7/20/2018 at 1:48 PM, Argus said:

It doesn't take a genius to realize that Trump is a bully, and the moment you start making concessions he will scent weakness and then simply demand more.

Larry Kudlow gave a speech a couple of days ago on progress and basically says the Chinese haven't given an inch and show no signs of being willing to do so.

 

Your the bully here. :P

Edited by taxme

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23 hours ago, betsy said:

China's communist leaders reportedly starting to buckle under pressure of Trump's trade war

https://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-leaders-overconfidence-nationalism-in-trumps-trade-war-2018-8

 

China needs America more because of the massive amounts of exports, by the tens of thousands of products, that they ship to America and even Canada every year. Walk in any big box or grocery store and pretty much most of the stuff in those stores were made in China. China knows that they have to buckle under pressure from Trump. Trudeau knows this too. 

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On 8/12/2018 at 5:12 PM, taxme said:

China needs America more because of the massive amounts of exports, by the tens of thousands of products, that they ship to America and even Canada every year. Walk in any big box or grocery store and pretty much most of the stuff in those stores were made in China. China knows that they have to buckle under pressure from Trump. Trudeau knows this too. 

China has all the America it needs!  Apple, designed in California, made by slave labor at Foxconn facilities in China where nets are needed around the buildings to prevent workers from committing suicide. Then sold at a highly inflated price back to Americans who need to get it on credit by American banks having their global HQ in places like Hong Kong while charging high interest rates or offering a financing plan so they can pay even more for the already overpriced item.

America cannot survive without this cycle of consumerism and endless financing to get the instant gratification via these over priced 'American'  product imports.

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On 8/17/2018 at 12:31 PM, GostHacked said:

China has all the America it needs!  Apple, designed in California, made by slave labor at Foxconn facilities in China where nets are needed around the buildings to prevent workers from committing suicide. Then sold at a highly inflated price back to Americans who need to get it on credit by American banks having their global HQ in places like Hong Kong while charging high interest rates or offering a financing plan so they can pay even more for the already overpriced item.

America cannot survive without this cycle of consumerism and endless financing to get the instant gratification via these over priced 'American'  product imports.

Hate it or love it but that's where the world is heading. Consumerism is king and so is financing. Its the natural progression for all economies, to consume. We all would be without jobs if it weren't for consumers.

Edited by paxamericana

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6 hours ago, paxamericana said:

Hate it or love it but that's where the world is heading. Consumerism is king and so is financing. Its the natural progression for all economies, to consume. We all would be without jobs if it weren't for consumers.

As long as the regulations stay in place. And considering the crash of 2008 which showed us how vulnerable the US economy is (however that was due to DE-regulation) , and showed us how inflated and over valued everything in the US is. Compare wages to debt load and the endless cycle of consumerism without the means to pay for it leads to a death spiral of a nation.

The DOW keeps hitting records, but really, what does that mean? 

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On 8/17/2018 at 11:31 AM, GostHacked said:

America cannot survive without this cycle of consumerism and endless financing to get the instant gratification via these over priced 'American'  product imports.

I think you meant to say: "it cannot survive WITH this cycle of consumerism and endless financing".  No economy is sustainable if it does not produce goods and create wealth.  No economy can sustain itself by nothing but consumption and speculation.  The only thing that allows the US to survive this long is hegemony of the Greenback and motivation by the world of finance to continue to skim the cream of the country by owning the central bank (and the last many administrations - lock stock and barrel).

Edited by cannuck

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On 8/21/2018 at 9:11 PM, cannuck said:

I think you meant to say: "it cannot survive WITH this cycle of consumerism and endless financing".  No economy is sustainable if it does not produce goods and create wealth.  No economy can sustain itself by nothing but consumption and speculation.  The only thing that allows the US to survive this long is hegemony of the Greenback and motivation by the world of finance to continue to skim the cream of the country by owning the central bank (and the last many administrations - lock stock and barrel).

Sometimes a person and a nation do can survive in such way without producing enough goods and creating enough wealth....for the time being....

In Europe many centuries ago:

At a certain beginning point when the nobility still had their credit, people were willingly to lent money to them.

Then they spent too much than they could earn, people still had no problem to lent money to them due to some inertial thinking effect. Even if when it was obviously that the nobility could not pay back their debts, they still could borrow money from lower classes.

Then,  just as you had pointed out, such thing could not last forever,  so the balloon eventually blew up. All creditors wanted their money back and the nobles just couldn't repay them.

Then there were riots and rebellion. And the kings and nobility even hadn't enough money to pay the soldiers to crack down the rioters...

At the moment of their downfall, the kings and nobles were still more advance on many aspects like culture, education, knowledge....than the rioters and mobs,  but these advantages could not save them from downfall or even save their necks. 

China or other nations will not surrender because there is no way to surrender. It is nothing about trade deficit and tariff. Just imagine, if Louis XVI offer lower classes "surrender to your King, I'll spare you as my royal factories's cheap slave labors who must earn minimal wages, buy debts from king and should never want to get the money back...", would lower classes accept this offer?

The current relationship between US and its trade partners include EU, Canada, Japan, China, India....just like the crew of Apollo 13...LOL...just like Hitler and his Nazi partners in the last days in that bunker---everyone knew that Fuhrer's days were numbered, but everyone didn't want to risk the Fuhrer's anger alone so he could buy himself some time to figure out an escape route to survive from imminent down fall. So everyone began to kid the Fuhrer by saying "you are absolutely right, my Fuhrer!", "I'll execute your order right away, my Fuhrer!", "Rossevelt and Stalin will surrender:P soon since they fear each other more than fear you as you has anticipated, my Fuhrer!"...until the last moment the Fuhrer found that everyone had betrayed him secretly.....  :lol::(

Edited by xul

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American government loan from private banks and pay huge interest by tax its people. Hardworking people have to give large amount of money to those blood sucker bankers. So does Canada, France, and other nations.  That is not sustainable. So America has less money to pay for R&D, build new infrastructure and other activities. But the bankers want more, so Trump try to suck more from other nations, just as greedy as his grandparent take advantages from poor whores. China is the largest trade partner of the states, so tax those trade can take more money. That is the explanation of everything.
If China surrender, in the near future, I don’t see any other nation has the ability to challenge US. I guess the world will gradually change into a new slavery age, all people work for the most powerful bank bosses in America, until most people lost everything and become to rebels decades or centurys after.
If China will not surrender, and survive, that will set an example for the rest of the world, that many nations will try to develop their own economy, this will make it harder for the bankers to suck blood in percentage of the total economic amount, but likely to make bankers take absolutely more amount of money from the world economy. And more people in the world can enjoy better life include American people, they can improve their life by buying cheap Chinese goods while their money be rubbed by bankers through tax.
 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6ayb02bwp0

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Nowadays, democracy only means if a country allows American bankers to suck enough bloods from that country by let the puppets of the bankers legislate. If not allowed, that country is not a democracy no matter if the leader of that country was elected or not.

Edited by bjre

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10 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

I wonder if the big dump by China of US debt is coming.  They may soon decide it’s worth illustrating that there’s a limit to how much trade abuse they will take.  

 

Nope....not going to happen.   Here's why:

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/2160270/why-trade-war-wont-prompt-beijing-dump-its-us-treasuries

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1 minute ago, Zeitgeist said:

I think the US fed gov is taking a big gamble on this. 

 

The US "fed gov" has been taking this gamble for decades...since Nixon shock in the 1970's.

China only holds 6% of American federal debt...most is held by Americans.

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1 minute ago, Zeitgeist said:

Time will tell.  There was very little US-China trade in the 70’s.  

 

All the more reason that China won't do it.

China is now America's #1 trading partner...they both need each other for different reasons.

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On 9/27/2018 at 11:17 PM, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

All the more reason that China won't do it.

China is now America's #1 trading partner...they both need each other for different reasons.

At a certain point the trade affronts may simply be too big for China  to ignore, especially if it can’t find ample counter tariffs.  A major counter measure beyond the counter tariffs may be seen as necessary to assert sovereignty and rouse national pride because the US is bringing China to its knees.  Already the US has tried to block Russian arms sales to China. Yes a low US dollar would further hurt Chinese exports if China dumped US debt, but it also might tank the US economy.  It’s no less self destructive to China than Trump’s tariffs are to the US.  The reason it might tank the US economy is because the cost of living would soar and there are few means left to stimulate the US economy except quantitative easing.  Who would buy such compromised debt bonds?  It’s a highly inflationary approach. 

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Just now, Zeitgeist said:

.... Already the US has tried to block Russian arms sales to China. Yes a low US dollar would further hurt Chinese exports if China dumped US debt, but it also might tank the US economy.  It’s no less self destructive to China than Trump’s tariffs are to the US.  The reason it might tank the US economy is because the cost of living would soar and there are few means left to stimulate the US economy except quantitative easing.  Who would buy such compromised debt bonds?  It’s a highly inflationary approach. 

 

No....China needs the U.S. economy and consumerism to continue as the largest importer of Chinese goods.   Isn't that the same argument Canada is using for NAFTA...."38 states need Canada...blah...blah...blah".  

Because of the huge trade imbalance (Trump's point in all this), China has run out of counter-tariff headroom....China cannot match Trump's tariffs.

the U.S. Fed does not want the American economy to overheat, and will raise interest rates to keep inflation in check...China has far less impact.

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10 hours ago, Zeitgeist said:

At a certain point the trade affronts may simply be too big for China  to ignore, especially if it can’t find ample counter tariffs.  A major counter measure beyond the counter tariffs may be seen as necessary to assert sovereignty and rouse national pride because the US is bringing China to its knees.  Already the US has tried to block Russian arms sales to China. Yes a low US dollar would further hurt Chinese exports if China dumped US debt, but it also might tank the US economy.  It’s no less self destructive to China than Trump’s tariffs are to the US.  The reason it might tank the US economy is because the cost of living would soar and there are few means left to stimulate the US economy except quantitative easing.  Who would buy such compromised debt bonds?  It’s a highly inflationary approach. 

Not likely as they would see production of consumer goods move outside of china. Say to india ...

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