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Will Bernier start new party?


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5 minutes ago, turningrite said:

I don't think the 2000 election presents a good comparison. The Alliance Party was mainly a regional party grounded in its Reform support in Western Canada, and the BQ, which won 44 seats, was explicitly a regionally based party, fielding candidates only in Quebec.

You're right. It would likely be much worse since the NDP and BQ won't be taking votes from the Liberals in the mostly Liberal areas. Unless Bernier's party has a much greater rate of success in Quebec than elsewhere, replacing the BQ, in effect, I see the Liberals taking over 250 seats.

5 minutes ago, turningrite said:

Bernier's new party is aimed at appealing to voters across the political spectrum and across Canada.

No, it's not. It appeals to conservatives. And if he's going to hang onto those righteous principles, he's not going to be able to veer off into the territory which would attract left of centre voters. Are some Liberal and NDP voters concerned and unhappy about immigration? Yes! About a third. But just how concerned are they? You think they're more concerned about this than any of their social justice issues? You think they're going to jump to a party which is to the right of the Tories just because of immigration? I do not.

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Harper did. In fact, Harper increased immigration. Why wouldn't Scheer? The rest of what you say is correct. Scheer would be a huge improvement over Trudeau. But if you think he's going to cut

Bernier's position on supply management/trade, immigration is compatible with mine.   I'm interested.

I think Canada's politics are dynamic enough that it's hard to predict, and not useful to simply resign to the idea that the right vote will be split and that otherwise things will remain the same. Th

22 minutes ago, scribblet said:

This is all playing into Trudeau's politics of division and name calling. 

I'm not so sure scribblet. As they say in advertising, all publicity is good publicity. It's a bonus to have some of this stuff spill over into the public domain. Let mainstream Canadians have a gander at the politics of the day at work.

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Just now, capricorn said:

I'm not so sure scribblet. As they say in advertising, all publicity is good publicity. It's a bonus to have some of this stuff spill over into the public domain. Let mainstream Canadians have a gander at the politics of the day at work.

I'm hoping that this will result in some good debate at the convention and that Scheer will be more open to opposing Trudeau.   I agree he has to be very careful because any opposition to immigration no matter how moderate will just cause him to use the racist card more and more, generally backed by the liberal media.   

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3 hours ago, turningrite said:

There's speculation today that Maxime Bernier could start a new political movement or party. If he does, at least some topics, including immigration and refugee policy, will become matters of public debate, thus breaking the consensus imposed by the current tri-party cabal in Ottawa. I think it's time for fresh air, and it's long overdue that public attitudes and concerns be considered regarding contentious matters. At the very least, a new political movement, should it draw considerable support, could pull other parties in the direction of reflecting broadly-held views in this country. Trudeau, you might just have real competition to contend with!

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-maxime-bernier-to-make-announcement-ahead-of-conservative-convention/

Maxine Bernier could ruin it for the conservative party's chances of getting elected in the next election if he tried to start up a new party now. That could take away many votes from the conservative party and cause a split that would probably work out well for Trudeau and end up being a disaster for Canada and Canadians. As much as I do not like the conservative party all that much these days I have to hope that they do become the next new government. We cannot have four more years of Trudeau and liberalism. You then can surely kiss British Canada goodbye. :(

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3 minutes ago, Argus said:

1.) You're right. It would likely be much worse since the NDP and BQ won't be taking votes from the Liberals in the mostly Liberal areas. Unless Bernier's party has a much greater rate of success in Quebec than elsewhere, replacing the BQ, in effect, I see the Liberals taking over 250 seats.

2.) No, it's not. It appeals to conservatives. And if he's going to hang onto those righteous principles, he's not going to be able to veer off into the territory which would attract left of centre voters. Are some Liberal and NDP voters concerned and unhappy about immigration? Yes! About a third. But just how concerned are they? You think they're more concerned about this than any of their social justice issues? You think they're going to jump to a party which is to the right of the Tories just because of immigration? I do not.

1.) At present, I can't see the Libs taking more than about 35 or 36 percent of the vote. The NDP seems to be holding its own, albeit it's distinctly in thrid-party position among the three major traditional parties. We'll have to see how polling shakes out over the next six months. If Bernier's group gains little or no traction, he and the CPC might try to patch their differences. But don't count Bernier out. His views on immigration, refugees and multiculturalism have attracted widespread support, including among Lib and NDP supporters. And he's open to being flexible on trade issues like supply management. Whether these things change voting intentions remains to be seen. It should be fascinating to watch, though.

2.) As above, let's see. I believe a recent poll indicated that trade and immigration issues remain top-of-mind among Canadian voters and if this is so Bernier represents a different perspective than do the traditional mainstream parties who are fighting each other mainly on variations of the same policies. Polling on issues like immigration and multiculturalism suggest Bernier's views could pull support from the traditional parties. Immigration alone might not make voters jump but if any proposition has come to be recognized as valid in Canada over the past couple decades it's that Canadian voters, except perhaps in Atlantic Canada, are increasingly untethered to traditional party loyalties.

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3 minutes ago, scribblet said:

I'm hoping that this will result in some good debate at the convention and that Scheer will be more open to opposing Trudeau.   I agree he has to be very careful because any opposition to immigration no matter how moderate will just cause him to use the racist card more and more, generally backed by the liberal media.   

Well, all Scheer has to do if Trudeau tries to use the racist card against him over immigration well attack back and ask him what he meant by Trudeau calling him a racist. Put Trudeau on the spot. No one should run away from anyone trying to call someone else a racist unless you have actual proof that the person is a real racist. Only wimps will run away after being accused of being called a racist. That word is being over used these days to try and shut down any debates on multiculturalism or third world immigration. Scheer needs to stop paying attention to polls. Scheer knows today that immigration has become one of the main topics of the day in Canada with Canadians. Scheer should not be afraid to take on that topic. 

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Here’s what Harper said on Twitter:

“It is clear that Max never accepted the result of the leadership vote and seeks only to divide Conservatives. His decision today allows the Conservative Party of Canada to move forward united behind our Leader @AndrewScheer.”

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11 minutes ago, taxme said:

Maxine Bernier could ruin it for the conservative party's chances of getting elected in the next election if he tried to start up a new party now. That could take away many votes from the conservative party and cause a split that would probably work out well for Trudeau and end up being a disaster for Canada and Canadians. As much as I do not like the conservative party all that much these days I have to hope that they do become the next new government. We cannot have four more years of Trudeau and liberalism. You then can surely kiss British Canada goodbye. :(

Be not afraid. If Bernier provides a clear alternative to the tri-party consensus, at least going forward Canadian voters who dislike the status quo won't be able to say they weren't provided a clear choice. This will hold if either the LPC or CPC prevails in 2019. Bernier apparently believes that real change simply isn't possible within the current CPC. And we all know what we get when the Libs are in power. And the NDP? I won't get into what kind of disaster an NDP government might bring. So, with Bernier's party, we might at last have a real choice in that the tri-party elitist consensus will be challenged. If the status quo prevails, well, we'll get the government and country we deserve, may the deity of our choice help us all!

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6 minutes ago, scribblet said:

Here’s what Harper said on Twitter:

“It is clear that Max never accepted the result of the leadership vote and seeks only to divide Conservatives. His decision today allows the Conservative Party of Canada to move forward united behind our Leader @AndrewScheer.”

Harper, unfortunately, was never very good at understanding the zeitgeist in this country. He was a better PM than Trudeau, but that's setting a very low bar for purposes of comparison.

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20 minutes ago, turningrite said:

Harper, unfortunately, was never very good at understanding the zeitgeist in this country. He was a better PM than Trudeau, but that's setting a very low bar for purposes of comparison.

Harper understood and understands. But his ideology was pragmatism. He understood that if he occupied the centre he would get all the right of centre votes, and still appeal to centrist voters. In fact, given how the Liberals have shifted to the Left, the smart move for the Tories is to move a little further left, reassuring centrists while also offering an array of mostly centre/centre right policies. Moving rightward would not make any political sense. Harper understands this.

And the problem with trying to discuss immigration issues is that they're complicated and not made for sound bytes. Not, at least, from the right side of the spectrum. Which makes it very hard to communicate your position to the public at large in the face of hostility from the media, and left of centre parties and activists screaming "Racism! Intolerance! Xenophobia!" I think Rempel was starting to ease into that with her announcement of a Tory immigration policy change and that the numbers and types ought to be set for Canada's needs and out of political expediency. Of course what the media wanted to know is "Are you going to lower immigration numbers?" Which, of course, she would not answer. You can call that equivocating, but it fits with the idea numbers shouldn't be set for political expediency, and doesn't allow the party to be portrayed as anti-immigrant before an election.
 

Edited by Argus
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What we can take from history:

When Conservatives divided:

1993: Liberal majority

1997: Liberal majority

 2000: Liberal Majority

When Conservatives united:

2004: Liberal minority

2006: Conservative minority

2008: Conservative minority 

2011: Conservative majority

Divided there is no chance of forming a gov't. 

 

 

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The timing isn’t helpful, less than a year from an election and with the Conservatives in a statistical tie with the Liberals in most polls. Mr. Trudeau suddenly seems vulnerable. You sense a broad swath of the public has tired of the self-righteous, morally superior tone the Liberals have set, the ceaseless displays of virtue signalling. You can hear Canadians moaning: Just give us a normal government for heaven’s sake.

...

The party’s immigration critic, Michelle Rempel, this week made a compelling and rational case for a review of the policies guiding the treatment of asylum seekers entering into the country. She says the Tories will put in place a “fair, orderly and compassionate system” that also respects the government’s ability to pay for it – something that is not the case now. Only after consulting with Canadians will the party talk about new immigration levels.

I think if the party can build on what Rempel started and make it known they understand the concerns of the 49% of Canadians who think there's too much immigration, but without going too far as to seem like they're hostile towards immigrants, they can really do a lot here. They will need to emphasis this in order to lower the attraction of Bernier's new party. They'll be able to make the case "Do you want to waste your vote on this protest party and give the country to the virtue signaling Trudeau again or stay with us and get real changes?"

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-the-bernier-headache-is-just-beginning/

Edited by Argus
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I think Canada's politics are dynamic enough that it's hard to predict, and not useful to simply resign to the idea that the right vote will be split and that otherwise things will remain the same. The Liberals went from the dominant party to a distant 3rd and then back to power in the span of a decade. The decades-long BQ dominance in Quebec disappeared in a single election. Reform went from 1 seat to 52 in 1993, and was gone 7 years later. Unlike Canada's neighbor to the South where politics is static and all depends on tiny 1-2% variances between the two established parties, Canadian parties come and go rapidly, and their fortunes can change greatly from one election to the next. In France, a new party formed in 2016 won the 2017 election. The same can happen in Canada. It just depends on if the party and its leader resonates with voters or not. 

 

 

Edited by Bonam
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8 minutes ago, Bonam said:

I think Canada's politics are dynamic enough that it's hard to predict, and not useful to simply resign to the idea that the right vote will be split and that otherwise things will remain the same. The Liberals went from the dominant party to a distant 3rd and then back to power in the span of a decade. The decades-long BQ dominance in Quebec disappeared in a single election. Reform went from 1 seat to 52 in 1993, and was gone 7 years later. Unlike Canada's neighbor to the South where politics is static and all depends on tiny 1-2% variances between the two established parties, Canadian parties come and go rapidly, and their fortunes can change greatly from one election to the next. In France, a new party formed in 2016 won the 2017 election. The same can happen in Canada. It just depends on if the party and its leader resonates with voters or not.

Bernier is not that leader. I don't know about in French, but he's not particularly charismatic in English.

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9 minutes ago, Argus said:

Bernier is not that leader. I don't know about in French, but he's not particularly charismatic in English.

If he's not, then his party will probably disappear after an election or two just like other upstart parties have come and gone in the last few decades. 

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1 hour ago, Argus said:

Bernier is not that leader. I don't know about in French, but he's not particularly charismatic in English.

True, he is very hard to listen to and understand in English anyway.

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4 minutes ago, Queenmandy85 said:

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Why, it was oK...

Bernier made a mistaking in calling his former colleages/supporters morally corrupt.  He should've taken the high road, not the low road making a more dignified departure.

 

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FPTP means that Bernier can ruin Conservative chances with a few per cent of the vote but I think it’s unlikely he’ll get there. Although immigration is an issue that concerns Canadians across the political spectrum at the moment, I don’t think you can build a national party on one issue alone and Rempel will be stridently clarifying her party’s position in competition with anything he might come up with. In addition, populists tend to be economically centrist and Bernier certainly isn’t that. How well is he even going to do in Quebec, fertile ground for a native son with an anti-immigrant message, given his desire to scrap supply management? This looks like another example of poor impulse control on Bernier’s part. 

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