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Russia is not going to transfer the Kuril Islands to Japan

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In 1956, the USSR and Japan signed a Joint Declaration, in which Moscow agreed to consider the possibility of transferring the islands of the Kuril Chain - Habomai and Shikotan after the conclusion of a peace treaty, while the fate of Kunashir and Iturup was not affected.

The Soviet leadership expected that the agreement would put an end to the dispute. Japan, in turn, saw in it only a part of problem solution. Subsequent negotiations did not lead to anything.

In November 2018, after a meeting of the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin and the Prime Minister of Japan Shindzo Abe in Singapore the two parties announced acceleration of the negotiation process on the peace treaty and the Kuril Islands. And the agreement of 1956 was taken as a basis.

The statement of the Russian President in 2018 was taken by the Japanese as an agreement to make territorial concessions, and Tokyo began to behave as if the issue of transferring the islands was almost resolved. S. Abe even generously promised that the Russians that were living on the Southern Kuril Islands would not be evicted from there, in the event of the transferring the islands to Japan.

Japan hoped to reach certain agreements during the G-20 summit held at the end of June 2019 in the Japanese city of Osaka. However, Russia refused to discuss the transfer of the two Kuril Islands to the Japanese side.

In particular, Moscow fears an increase in the number of US troops in Japan as part of an alliance between Washington and Tokyo. Russia asked for concrete answers, as Japan intends to resolve Moscow’s concerns, but did not get any specifics. In this regard, the Russian side refused to negotiate on the two islands. Moreover, it was said that Japan should come out from under American influence, since Japan’s inability to act independently, without consulting with the United States, led in effect to zeroing of the Soviet Union’s proposal in 1956. Apparently, this time history repeats itself.

At the same time, the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin noted that Moscow has not any plans to transfer the Kuril Islands, adding that « Russian flag on the islands will not be lowered». Furthermore, the Russian president stated that Moscow intends to develop the Far East in general and the southern Kuril Islands in particular.

It should be noted that the Russian authorities and the president V. Putin always emphasize that the territorial identity of the Kuril Islands is not negotiable. In recent years, Russia has consistently increased its military presence on the islands, preparing the infrastructure for the deployment of military contingent. Moreover, the islands are building a road network and airfields, upgrading the energy supply system, developing the fish industry and tourism, and building telecommunications infrastructure. Thus, it would be weird to take these steps in anticipation of the transfer of the islands. Furthermore, the loss of the southern Kuril Islands will damage the defense system of the Russian Primorye and weaken Russia's defense capability as a whole.

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I'd be thinking the scope for tourism on the Kurils is modest

https://eugene.kaspersky.com/2014/09/10/kuril-islands-vacations-climate/

The islands mean a lot more to the Japanese than they do to the Russians. If Putin was interested in making Russia more prosperous, he'd be getting what he could for them. Selling that real estate would be much less hazardous for Russian security than Chinese investment in Siberia. 

Edited by SpankyMcFarland

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The Kuril Islands are strategically important as they control the approaches to the Sea of Okhotsk which is a critical Russian naval bastion, and the Islands are also rich in resources.

The enmity between Russia and Japan predates the Second World War of course, the Russo-Japanese war was the nadir of the Russian Empire,  the routing of the vaunted Russian Baltic Fleet at Tsushima Strait by the Japanese is arguably the most humiliating defeat in Russian history and was a major contributing factor to the downfall of the Romanov Dynasty.

For the Japanese, contrary to popular myth, they did not surrender in World War Two because of the atomic bombs, they surrendered because they were about to be invaded by the Soviets and anything was better than that, they refused to give the Russians their vengeance at literally any cost, handing the Emperor over to the Americans was vastly preferable to eating crow served up by Mr. Ivan.

Edited by Dougie93

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On 7/19/2019 at 5:50 AM, Dougie93 said:

The Kuril Islands are strategically important as they control the approaches to the Sea of Okhotsk which is a critical Russian naval bastion, and the Islands are also rich in resources.

The enmity between Russia and Japan predates the Second World War of course, the Russo-Japanese war was the nadir of the Russian Empire,  the routing of the vaunted Russian Baltic Fleet at Tsushima Strait by the Japanese is arguably the most humiliating defeat in Russian history and was a major contributing factor to the downfall of the Romanov Dynasty.

For the Japanese, contrary to popular myth, they did not surrender in World War Two because of the atomic bombs, they surrendered because they were about to be invaded by the Soviets and anything was better than that, they refused to give the Russians their vengeance at literally any cost, handing the Emperor over to the Americans was vastly preferable to eating crow served up by Mr. Ivan.

Actually according to the decisions of the Yalta Conference, the USSR entered the war against Japan in three months after the surrender of Germany and defeated its most powerful army - the Kwantung Army, which brought a quick victory. Only 23 days, and Tokyo admitted defeat. But the USA and Great Britain expected to end the war with Japan in 1947, if the USSR did not take part in the war. In accordance with signed international agrements, Japan abandoned its rights and claims to the Kuril Islands. And now they want them back but do not want to sing a peace treaty..

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Here in Finland many people, including me as well, think Russia should return the area they stole from Finland, namely Karelia.

However, the likelihood of that happening is close to zero. If Russia doesn't give away some remote islands with which it does nothing is it going to give away a buffer-zone next to a metropolis?

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On 8/10/2019 at 10:37 AM, -TSS- said:

Here in Finland many people, including me as well, think Russia should return the area they stole from Finland, namely Karelia.

However, the likelihood of that happening is close to zero. If Russia doesn't give away some remote islands with which it does nothing is it going to give away a buffer-zone next to a metropolis?

As I know, Russia  is developing the Kuril Islands now. Like fishing industry, building up of military presence to protect the region from the east

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Putin visited Finland today and now there is that effing helicopter making the noise seeing him home. 

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3 hours ago, -TSS- said:

Putin visited Finland today and now there is that effing helicopter making the noise seeing him home. 

It's not like he's Stalin, compared the rogues gallery of autocrats these days, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin is comparatively tame.

Like MBS in Saudi Arabia, Putin is George Clooney compared to him.

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17 hours ago, Dougie93 said:

It's not like he's Stalin, compared the rogues gallery of autocrats these days, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin is comparatively tame.

Like MBS in Saudi Arabia, Putin is George Clooney compared to him.

I suspect Ukrainians would not agree. The Baltic states and Scandinavia are rightly concerned as well. Russia is not a normal country. Instead of trying to better the lot of ordinary citizens, Putin spends his time oppressing the people, enriching oligarch buddies and destabilizing neighbouring states.

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1 minute ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

I suspect Ukrainians would not agree. The Baltic states and Scandinavia are rightly concerned as well. Russia is not a normal country. Instead of trying to better the lot of ordinary citizens, Putin spends his time oppressing the people, enriching oligarch buddies and destabilizing neighbouring states.

That doesn't make him Stalin, between the war and the purges, Stalin liquidated 40 million people, to include 7 million Ukrainians by starvation.

That is not Putin.

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Putin is not a Stalinist.   Putin practices what is called Illiberal Democracy.

Democracy in of itself is a tyranny, if it is not liberalized.

Putin in the leader of a class called the Siloviki.   The Security Men.

Putin is an Oligarch, who works for the Kremlin, to balance the power of the private Oligarchs, because Putin is the Oligarch with an army.

People rally around him, in fear of the chaos they think would ensue again, if the private Oligarchs were able to seize control again.

The Siloviki also incite confrontation with the Americans and NATO proxy.

In order to make Russians afraid of that menace at the gates, thus inciting them to cling even more tightly to the Kremlin.

Russia is a tyranny, but it is no longer a Stalinist totalitarian dictatorship, Putin only retains power so long as the majority see him as their protector.

The people who protest in the streets, the liberals,  are not the majority, it is neither massed nor widespread.

Just like Nixon, Putin too has a Great Silent Majority, and they still view him as their protector, lesser of two evils.

By nature, Putin is not like Stalin. Putin is Russian, he is a Russian nationalist.  

Stalin was Georgian, Stalin hated the Russians, the only Russian Stalin loved, was Lenin.

So Putin is not out to liquidate Russians, he genuinely believes that he is the protector of Russia.

Particularity against the Americans and Europeans working with the private Oligarchs to overthrow him as that protector.

So they can strip mine Russia of her wealth again,  like they did back in the 1990's after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Which is exactly what the Obama Administration and EU did in Ukraine. 

Thus why Putin moved to waylay them, by asymmetrical warfare, including seizure of Crimea and supporting blocking position in the Donbass.

To which the Obama Administration responded by repositioning in the Black Sea Theater with a Ballistic Missile Defense system in Romania.

Which incited Putin to go into Syria, to secure the Tartus naval base and access on the other side of the Bosporus Strait.

That is why Putin is propping up Assad. To stave off a naval blockade by the Americans and NATO.

Also why Putin is courting Erdogan, because the Bosporus is a strategic choke point running through the heartland of Turkey.

/Cold War Two

Edited by Dougie93

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Stalin is an awfully low bar for comparison. No, Putin is not Mao or Stalin but he’s still awful, imprisoning and killing reporters and dissidents at will. After so many years of failure, he can be unequivocally labelled as an obstacle to Russian advancement. The country is still a basket case because of his policies. There’s no intrinsic reason why ordinary Russians shouldn’t enjoy the same standard of living as Canadians. Their country’s achievements in science, technology and the arts far outstrip ours. It’s also inaccurate to compare him to Nixon who faced a free press and Congress. Even Erdogan has just lost political control of Istanbul. Can you imagine Putin allowing that in Moscow?

 

Edited by SpankyMcFarland

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4 minutes ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

Stalin is an awfully low bar for comparison. Putin still imprisons and kills reporters and dissidents at will. He is dreadful and has been an obstacle to Russian advancement. The country is still a basket case because of his policies. It’s inaccurate to compare him to Nixon.

Lots of tyrants do that, Justin Trudeau tried to have his Vice Chief of the Defence Staff imprisoned on trumped up charges. The Government of Canada will crack down hard of dissidence if it feels the need, and often has, there's no reason to crack down on the Canadian press, because the Canadian press is a state run press which is largely subservient to the government which pays for it.

That doesn't make Justin Trudeau Stalin, although it does make him quite Putin like actually.

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Now, Xi Jinping in China, that is Stalin.   Chinese Stalin.  As China has clearly been backsliding into Stalinism for some time now.

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7 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

Lots of tyrants do that, Justin Trudeau tried to have his Vice Chief of the Defence Staff imprisoned on trumped up charges. The Government of Canada will crack down hard of dissidence if it feels the need, and often has, there's no reason to crack down on the Canadian press, because the Canadian press is a state run press which is largely subservient to the government which pays for it.

That doesn't make Justin Trudeau Stalin, although it does make him quite Putin like actually.

Ah, Jaysus. How many reporters has JT murdered so far? The Toronto Sun might be a bit miffed to hear it takes its marching orders from him. Anyway, off-topic. 

Edited by SpankyMcFarland

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5 minutes ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

Ah, Jaysus. How many reporters has JT murdered so far? The Toronto Sun might be a bit miffed to hear it takes its marching orders from him. 

It's not a question of whether he's murdered anybody, but like Putin, he does assert that he is above the law, I just saw him state on tv that he accepts the finding that he is a criminal, but he asserts that he is proud of that, because by criminally propping up SNC-Lavalin, he is the protector of Quebec, which is exactly what Putin does in Russia.

In terms of the media, as they are largely subservient to his agenda, there is no threat to him there, so obviously he doesn't feel the need to behave lawlessly towards them at this time.

Edited by Dougie93

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Now, Jody Raybould Wilson and the other broad, what's her face, they have proven to be loyal to their oaths to the Queen.

So did Vice Admiral Norman. 

So it's not like it's just me who is resisting the lawlessness of the Government of Canada, it's own Cabinet Ministers and Senior Military Officers are as well.

Which is good.   That is the Constitutional Monarchy in action, British Westminster Parliamentary Supremacy, since 1688.

Russia doesn't have that and never did.  That is why Russia has always been a tyranny, Czarist, Soviet, and now Nationalist.

Edited by Dougie93

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For some reason people think that if Putin is overthrown he would be replaced by some nice liberal. However, do you remember Zhirinovsky? He is probably too old now but there are a lot of like-minded people in Russia. 

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On 8/24/2019 at 3:49 PM, -TSS- said:

For some reason people think that if Putin is overthrown he would be replaced by some nice liberal. However, do you remember Zhirinovsky? He is probably too old now but there are a lot of like-minded people in Russia. 

Exactly, these liberals are naive, Putin is what moderate looks like in Russia, if overthrown he will not be replaced by George Clooney.

The opposition in the Dumas is the Fascists to the right and the Communists to the left of United Russia.

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The whole Western liberal elite idea of inciting an economic crisis in Russia to bring Putin down is the sort of thing which starts wars.

If they start to spiral down, that is backs against wall, that is when they have nothing to lose and everything to gain by lashing out in a theater war in order to force the West to the bargaining table.

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The problem with the Neoliberals is that they are utterly bourgeois.

They are not resolved to kill nor die for anything.

So they cower from the Balance of Terror.

They mess with the balance and don't inspire terror.

They try indirect methods rather than direct confrontation when faced with aggression.

This however simply undermines deterrence and creates slack in the system for unintended consequences.

If MAD is supposed to work, the adversary must be absolutely convinced that you are prepared to go all the way.

The more wishy washy the responses, the more adversary start to view the red lines as being rhetorical.

That was Obama.   Provoke them, but then balk and let them cross a red line without an immediate and decisive show of force.

This is why I would assert that MAD does not work and is not actually in effect.

The adversaries do not believe that NATO is going to massively retaliate with a countervalue strike intentionally, under any circumstances.

But that is in fact the path to theater thermonuclear war, wherein if they are backs against the wall, they will come out swinging, then invoke nuclear deescalation.

They will push back hard, then brandish or even use nukes to force a settlement in their favor.

If that escalates to a counterforce, or interpolar exchange, it will be by misapprehension, miscalculation and/or mistake.

In the fog of war, not knowing what is going on, one side or the other will stumble over a red line which is real, but which they cannot see or simply doubt.

Thermonuclear weapons inspire so much fear, it makes people do crazy things, which is why the Terror has to be Balanced.

If it comes out of balance, if it stumbles into grey area, that is when shit is gonna happen.

Doesn't even matter what I think, because clearly that is what Dick Cheney was thinking when he unilaterally withdrew from ABM 72'

Ballistic Missile Defense is a declaration that you are jettisoning MAD and rather preparing, even if slowly but surely, to at some point fight and win a nuclear war.

The further down this path they go, the more reckless and aggressive adversaries are going to have to be to try to deter you.

This is called Escalation Dominance.  Escalation Dominance leads to Brinkmanship.  Brinkmanship leads to the brink in the fog of war.

Edited by Dougie93

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As we know, nowadays Japan really wants to get the Kuril islands which belong to Russia. They always tried to say that these territories are historically their ones. And seeing that these methods don't work for them the Japanese government decided to lead their policy being based on aggression and strong statements. And this led to worsening relations between two states and their dreams about these islands have gone far away. Now they chose another way. They want to lead a common Russia-Japan policy on the islands by economic means. But we all know that these steps are another hidden way to affect the situation among the islands. They don't realize that this is adventurous idea which leads nowhere. It's time to admit that Japan won't get the Kuril island whatever they speak. Their policy is quite unconstructive.

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16 hours ago, Gregory Walter said:

As we know, nowadays Japan really wants to get the Kuril islands which belong to Russia. They always tried to say that these territories are historically their ones. And seeing that these methods don't work for them the Japanese government decided to lead their policy being based on aggression and strong statements. And this led to worsening relations between two states and their dreams about these islands have gone far away. Now they chose another way. They want to lead a common Russia-Japan policy on the islands by economic means. But we all know that these steps are another hidden way to affect the situation among the islands. They don't realize that this is adventurous idea which leads nowhere. It's time to admit that Japan won't get the Kuril island whatever they speak. Their policy is quite unconstructive.

I`m fed up with their stupid desires to take over the world

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