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basilone_john

Americans are frightened

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American analysts are anxiously watching the strengthening of the forces of the Russian army, which has been happening in recent years. The Russian fleet got at its disposal the «Caliber» cruise missile, which confirmed its capabilities during real combat firing at terrorist targets in Syria. Also the new «Zircon» hypersonic anti-ship missile, which can be used from launchers for «Onyx and Caliber» complexes, is going to appear in the fleet service. The National Interest, also, noted the power of the Russian «Poseidon» project of an unmanned underwater vehicle with a nuclear power plant on board. All this, along with the expansion of the geopolitical influence of Moscow, forces the Pentagon and the White House administration to closely monitor changes in the military sphere of Russia. For more details: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russias-military-transforming-and-getting-stronger-right-our-eyes-67907

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America is the only military superpower.  It would annihilate Russia if the two were to go to war.  America is NOT scared of Russia.

Edited by J4L

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The Zircon is a long way from being in service, if ever.

Mr. Ivan doesn't have the cash to produce any of these new Wunderwaffen in any quantity.

Zircon at this juncture remains and experimental prototype and totally unproven therein.

3M-54 Kalibr is nothing special, basically a Russian TLAM

P-800 Oniks is more formidable, but the old Soviet P-700 Granit remains the most formidable anti-shipping missile on earth.

Mach 1.5 - 3.0 out to 380 nautical miles, can deliver 1600 lbs of high explosive, or be fitted with a 500 kiloton thermonuclear warhead.

In terms of underwater, like Zircon, Status-6 Oceanic Multipurpose System 'Poseidon" remains experimental.

None the less, Ivan has been capable of delivering nuclear torpedoes against coastal targets since 1958.

Fact is, the Balance of Terror is a stalemate in terms of firepower, so Ivan really only has one card to play in terms of intimidation.

It's called Escalation Dominance.  Escalating beyond the point where NATO would wish to go.

I would suggest an all out invasion of east Ukraine to the Dnepr while securing the flank with the 1st Guards Tank Army into Belarus on the Suwalki Gap.

Deploy INF in situ under battlefield command, for nuclear deescalation.

In terms of spooking the Americans, send ballistic missile submarines to park off the CONUS in a counterforce launch profile and conduct missile drills.

Back that up by resuming live fire nuclear tests, just to demonstrate resolve,  and that the current warheads are fully functioning.

Operation Crazy Ivan, stage up through a series of reckless wanton escalations towards the brink of war without warning nor explanation.

Edited by Dougie93

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22 hours ago, J4L said:

America is the only military superpower.  It would annihilate Russia if the two were to go to war. 

There's only one civilization and it would be annihilated if the two engaged in a nuclear war.

Quote

America is NOT scared of Russia.

That's scary.

 

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27 minutes ago, eyeball said:

There's only one civilization and it would be annihilated if the two engaged in a nuclear war.

Nah, there's not that many weapons on alert anymore, back in 1983 at the peak, with 25,000 warheads on alert, that would have been a civilization destroying event.

At this juncture, the Russians and Americans only have a combined 4000 or so warheads on alert. 

So it would be devastating in the northern hemisphere, but civilization would carry on.

By my calculations,  the optimal place to be, in terms of remote from the war zone,  yet civilized with ample resources, and safe from fallout, would be Ciudad del Este in Paraguay. 

It's really only Australia and New Zealand which the Russians would hit in the Southern Hemisphere, but the prevailing winds actually carry that fallout the other way out into the Indian Ocean, so South America would be quite safe.

Edited by Dougie93

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Also bear in mind that the media exaggerates the effects of thermonuclear weapons, they're more survivable than the public surmises. 

There is an effects radius, and a fallout plume, but those are finite and if you're not inside that area, and you didn't look at the flash, you're fine.

Even if you are in the effects radius, if are you in shelter, even just inside a house, you're likely to survive. 

The biggest warheads the Russians use now, are 800Kt, and the majority of their warheads are only 200Kt.

They don't deploy the huge multimegaton warheads that they did back in the 80's, so not just fewer bombs, but smaller bombs too.

So Cold War Two is not yet reached the threshold of annihilation that Cold War One did.

On the other hand, that does make an exchange more likely in Cold War Two, particularly as Ballistic Missile Defense improves as we go.

In fact,  it is those very anti-ballistic missiles which are inciting Cold War Two.

Ballistic Missile Defense vs Intermediate Nuclear Forces.

An exchange over the pole between Russia and the CONUS directly remains an unlikely scenario.

Much more likely to be a theater thermonuclear war in Europe.

With the Russians declining to invoke massive retaliation by attacking the Americans, British, or French directly. 

Instead only using nuclear weapons on countries which do not posses nuclear weapons. Poland, Ukraine and Romania being the most likely targets.

As it is unlikely that the Americans, British nor French would retaliate on behalf of other countries, when it was the Russians they had to retaliate against.

The Soviets also had this policy, don't nuke the Americans, British nor French, and you can get away with nuking everybody else.

These supposed "Deterrent Umbrellas" of the Americans are not real and Mr. Ivan knows it, Washington is not really willing to get nuked for Warsaw.

From the Baltic down through Ukraine and the Balkans, across the Black Sea to the Caucasus, that's the warzone.

Ivan is not likely to nuke Paris, but he will fight for the Near Abroad if he is backed into a corner.

The Americans, British and French have the least to be afraid of, because they are the safest, as the consequences of attacking them are suicidal.

If the Russians nuke America, it will be by mistake, a false alarm wherein they believed the Americans were attacking them first.

That is most likely to happen when tensions are at the brink of war.

Because the Russians wouldn't believe the Americans would attack them out of the blue for nothing.

If the Russians were however at the brink with the Americans, that's where the fog of war comes into play and you could get an interpolar exchange.

In the event of, by the lack of targets in vicinity and the fallout patterns, the safest place to be in North America is Eugene Oregon.

No, Canada is not actually a safe place to be, most of Canada is right in the plumes from the CONUS, the prevailing winds will spread the fallout across Canada.

In Cold War terms, Canada is No Man's Land between the Americans and Russians and Canada is expendable, so Canada is gonna get it bad.

As there are much fewer warheads now, I don't think the Russians would waste that many on Canada, it's the fallout that will get Canada.

Most of Canada is just downwind from some of the biggest targets of them all, Kitsap Washington, the Great Plains, Chicago, and so on.

Edited by Dougie93

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On 8/6/2019 at 11:33 AM, Dougie93 said:

The Zircon is a long way from being in service, if ever.

Mr. Ivan doesn't have the cash to produce any of these new Wunderwaffen in any quantity.

Zircon at this juncture remains and experimental prototype and totally unproven therein.

3M-54 Kalibr is nothing special, basically a Russian TLAM

P-800 Oniks is more formidable, but the old Soviet P-700 Granit remains the most formidable anti-shipping missile on earth.

Mach 1.5 - 3.0 out to 380 nautical miles, can deliver 1600 lbs of high explosive, or be fitted with a 500 kiloton thermonuclear warhead.

In terms of underwater, like Zircon, Status-6 Oceanic Multipurpose System 'Poseidon" remains experimental.

None the less, Ivan has been capable of delivering nuclear torpedoes against coastal targets since 1958.

Fact is, the Balance of Terror is a stalemate in terms of firepower, so Ivan really only has one card to play in terms of intimidation.

It's called Escalation Dominance.  Escalating beyond the point where NATO would wish to go.

I would suggest an all out invasion of east Ukraine to the Dnepr while securing the flank with the 1st Guards Tank Army into Belarus on the Suwalki Gap.

Deploy INF in situ under battlefield command, for nuclear deescalation.

In terms of spooking the Americans, send ballistic missile submarines to park off the CONUS in a counterforce launch profile and conduct missile drills.

Back that up by resuming live fire nuclear tests, just to demonstrate resolve,  and that the current warheads are fully functioning.

Operation Crazy Ivan, stage up through a series of reckless wanton escalations towards the brink of war without warning nor explanation.

Sorry, but who is that mr. Ivan?

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4 minutes ago, Luke Williams said:

Sorry, but who is that mr. Ivan?

 Ivan was the Soviets, now he is the Russians, Mister Ivan when he's on his game, Crazy Ivan when he catches you off guard.

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On 8/4/2019 at 8:24 PM, basilone_john said:

American analysts are anxiously watching the strengthening of the forces of the Russian army, which has been happening in recent years. The Russian fleet got at its disposal the «Caliber» cruise missile, which confirmed its capabilities during real combat firing at terrorist targets in Syria. Also the new «Zircon» hypersonic anti-ship missile, which can be used from launchers for «Onyx and Caliber» complexes, is going to appear in the fleet service. The National Interest, also, noted the power of the Russian «Poseidon» project of an unmanned underwater vehicle with a nuclear power plant on board. All this, along with the expansion of the geopolitical influence of Moscow, forces the Pentagon and the White House administration to closely monitor changes in the military sphere of Russia. For more details: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russias-military-transforming-and-getting-stronger-right-our-eyes-67907

It ain't going to happen, pardner. Both know that it would be pretty much game over and the possible end of life on  earth if they both started sending nuclear weapons towards each other.  There has always been this threat that one day Russia and America will battle it out. Some warmongers in America need a bogeyman and Russia and Putin is that bogeyman. I believe that Trump and Putin are friends and are on the same page. I do not fear Russia but I do fear communist China. 

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In terms of Zircon, Zircon is part of a larger arms race between what is called Hypersonics.

There are two types, Hypersonic Glide Vehicles (HGV) which are launched by ballistic missiles like MIRV's, but come in at a lower angle of attack and maneuvering rather than parabolic.

The other type is Hypersonic Cruise Missiles (HCM) which Zircon is an experimental prototype of,

America, China and Russia are all in this arms race, which is next generation rocket science, because these weapons are very expensive and tricky to make work, so only the Americans, Chinese and Russians are in the race at this juncture.

It's not the case that Russia has a significant lead in the race, because of the three the Russians have the least money available for the development and production of these next generation Intermediate Nuclear Forces.

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On 8/4/2019 at 8:24 PM, basilone_john said:

American analysts are anxiously watching the strengthening of the forces of the Russian army, which has been happening in recent years. The Russian fleet got at its disposal the «Caliber» cruise missile, which confirmed its capabilities during real combat firing at terrorist targets in Syria. Also the new «Zircon» hypersonic anti-ship missile, which can be used from launchers for «Onyx and Caliber» complexes, is going to appear in the fleet service. The National Interest, also, noted the power of the Russian «Poseidon» project of an unmanned underwater vehicle with a nuclear power plant on board. All this, along with the expansion of the geopolitical influence of Moscow, forces the Pentagon and the White House administration to closely monitor changes in the military sphere of Russia. For more details: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russias-military-transforming-and-getting-stronger-right-our-eyes-67907

Yeah, but, really:

0053_defense_comparison.png

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Annual expenditure in US dollars is not a good metric for judging military prowess, most of the American defense budget goes to overhead not front line capability, it's more of a jobs program than anything.

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