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5 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

To understand the situation is to understand all of the major costs and benefits of the relationship.

A major element of the US China trade war seems to be bleeding over into Canada, which is the idea that you can add tariffs and bring back manufacturing.

I don't see how that can happen.  And if that kind of approach drives how we talk about trade, then we aren't going to change anything.

We don't need to bring back manufacturing, we simply need to move it to other countries, and ideally not have it concentrated in one powerful country that is tyrannical that we must then have dependence on.

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This story has nothing and everything to do with Canada. It's about China's over the top response when the general manager of the Houston Rockets tweeted out a simple little support emoji for the peop

Harper actually worked for a living, and rose from the mail room to being an economist - getting his bachelor's and master's while working.  Most of all, he was NOT a goddamned lawyer and as far away

We knew this would happen if our markets were increasingly dependent on China, eventually your chickens come home to roost. China uses its economic muscle to call the shots, and silence the critics. B

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Just now, Moonlight Graham said:

1. iPhones can be manufactured elsewhere.

2. Yes it would be painful, at least in short-term.  Also painful:  giving up global hegemony to genocidal totalitarian tyrants.

1. Your response is so glib that I am wondering how serious you are about this.  You talked about 'China junk' and I came up with a counter example, so I am looking to resolve your thinking and see if we can get on the same page.  Again, I don't have a hard opinion on "China - good or bad" but I want to learn what the issues are beyond a surface level.

2. Need to quantify that pain.  The morality angle is a little specious to me.

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5 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

2. Need to quantify that pain.  The morality angle is a little specious to me.

It isn't primarily about morality, it's primarily about national self-interest.  What is your pain tolerance to have your country's sovereignty and economy come under increasing control of an adversarial power?  Do you support putting Hauwei 5G in this country and risk coming under surveillance of China to save a few bucks?

If it weren't for Chinese illegal tactics we may have been installing Canadian 5G tech all over the world.  Do you understand that China is attempting to steal as much global tech IP as possible in order to become the world leader in tech?  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-07-01/did-china-steal-canada-s-edge-in-5g-from-nortel

Do you understand that the CCP has mass surveillance across China's internet and mobile networks, has 54% of all security cameras in the world, and has initiated a social credit system where "bad citizens" are denied travel, employment opportunities etc?  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Credit_System

Do you want to be using something like a Chinese google or facebook or Whatsapp or iphone one day, and come under the surveillance of the CPP through its use so that they can exert evermore control over you?  When AI and automation explodes globally do you want it to be owned by American or Chinese companies?  Do you understand that China increasingly demands loyalty from its diaspora by threatening their family members in China.  Do you understand the potential power of a country of 1.4 billion with an ever-rising economy that will blow past the US and has a huge ever-growing diaspora including in Canada?  Do you understand that the US's 300 million population won't be able to compete with that indefinitely?

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26 minutes ago, Moonlight Graham said:

1. It isn't primarily about morality, it's primarily about national self-interest. 

2. What is your pain tolerance to have your country's sovereignty and economy come under increasing control of an adversarial power?  Do you support putting Hauwei 5G in this country and risk coming under surveillance of China to save a few bucks?

3. If it weren't for Chinese illegal tactics we may have been installing Canadian 5G tech all over the world.  Do you understand that China is attempting to steal as much global tech IP as possible in order to become the world leader in tech?  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-07-01/did-china-steal-canada-s-edge-in-5g-from-nortel

4. Do you want to be using something like a Chinese google or facebook or Whatsapp or iphone one day, and come under the surveillance of the CPP through its use so that they can exert evermore control over you?

5.  When AI and automation explodes globally do you want it to be owned by American or Chinese companies? 

6. Do you understand that China increasingly demands loyalty from its diaspora by threatening...that will blow past the US and has a huge ever-growing diaspora including in Canada?  Do you understand that the US's 300 million population won't be able to compete with that indefinitely?

1. Right.  So let's let go of the morality angle then, ie. genocide and totalitarian.  But that makes it difficult.  If we trade with China and it helps us and them (as it has) then we just have to get the best deal we can.  Trump has been a success, in a certain measure, on that front.

2. Since we are Canadian there's a certain irony in being cautious about the influence of a superpower.  But ok.

3. Yes, I understand.  And all I am doing is poking holes in your arguments to make it better.  I don't disagree with your overall argument, just that there are aspects of it that don't stand up.

4. I do this now with American technology so... 

5. I prefer American...

6. and you lapsed back into moral questions here...  The US itself eclipsed Britain's influence over us and we are still influenced.  American culture even impacts them also.

Here's an interesting take on the situation - we are simply moving our deficit problems to other nations, Mexico and Vietnam.  We don't seem to care about their human rights abuses at all, although I'm not sure how they compare to China's.

https://www.dw.com/en/the-real-winners-of-the-us-china-trade-dispute/a-55420269

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I think the solution is likely a lot more boring than a 100% pull-out from China.  I mean, even Trump's explosive rhetoric didn't change things that much at all.  I think the wonks will persist and hopefully changes will happen.  Do you remember the Japanese threat in the 80s ?  

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/09/5-fixes-for-the-world-trade-system/

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1 hour ago, Michael Hardner said:

 Again, I don't have a hard opinion on "China - good or bad" but I want to learn what the issues are beyond a surface level.

What does this even mean when referencing a country which has a million people in concentration camps, which has been credibly accused of murdering political prisoners to harvest and sell their organs, which is implementing the world's most obscene, oppressive system of control of its population, taking a racial position that echoes fascism, and expanding its influence throughout the world, including here?

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1 minute ago, Argus said:

What does this even mean when referencing a country which has a million people in concentration camps, which has been credibly accused of murdering political prisoners to harvest and sell their organs, which is implementing the world's most obscene, oppressive system of control of its population, taking a racial position that echoes fascism, and expanding its influence throughout the world, including here?

I dunno.  Reagan established relations with Chile 7 years after they impounded folk singers in concentration camps, murdered them and stole their children so where are we here ?


Do you want to talk about trade or conscience ?  If it's the latter please state how Canada-like a country has to be before we agree to take their money.  

 

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1 minute ago, Michael Hardner said:

I dunno.  Reagan established relations with Chile 7 years after they impounded folk singers in concentration camps, murdered them and stole their children so where are we here ?

Are you trying to establish Ronald Reagan as the paragon of moral virtue and enlightened foreign policy? Because that doesn't work for me. But further to that, Chile was in no way a danger to the US, nor could it ever be. China is most certainly a danger to us. Did you read where I quoted a EU report that China had 300 agents in Brussels alone? How many do you think they have in Canada? Was Chile influencing US academia, media and government? No, nor was it capable of doing so. But China certainly is. It's influencing ours, too. It's creeping, covert and overt influence is impacting what we see on TV, what we read, what is taught in universities, and what our politicians say. How soon before it starts having an impact on our laws?

1 minute ago, Michael Hardner said:

Do you want to talk about trade or conscience ?  If it's the latter please state how Canada-like a country has to be before we agree to take their money. 

It has to not be a danger to our society, values and democracy. Because conscience aside, feeding such an entity comes far too close to the quote attributed to Lenin that the capitalists will sell  him the rope used to hang them with.

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4 hours ago, cannuck said:

...  As usual, Canada (and with the one obvious Trump exception) the US share not only a border and culture, but a complete lack of balls in dealing with China.

 

How many warships and nuclear submarines does Canada have in the South China Sea and surrounding region ?  How many tactical and strategic aircraft squadrons ?   How many Canadian troops are in South Korea and Japan ?

Clearly Canada does not share that.

 

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12 minutes ago, Argus said:

1. Are you trying to establish Ronald Reagan as the paragon of moral virtue and enlightened foreign policy? Because that doesn't work for me.

2. But further to that, Chile was in no way a danger to the US, nor could it ever be. China is most certainly a danger to us.
 

 

1. No.  Only trying to say that we are already in a quagmire if we're talking about morality and money.  Of course there are limits as to what we would do for money but as Winston Churchill pointed out to the dowager ... everyone is a whore in the end.

2. Ah.  Here it is.  Morality is subservient to our self-interests but only in terms of defense.  China is a danger to the US ?  You mean because they own all of the debt ?  Again - I don't care about this stuff and I'm fine with getting level with China but only if the discussion isn't dripping with emotional outrage.

 

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11 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

I don't see how that can happen. 

So what, you dont see a lot of things. If we re-engineered the economy toward globalism in the past, we can change it again. In fact it must and will change, not necessarily to exactly as before.

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4 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

1. No.  Only trying to say that we are already in a quagmire if we're talking about morality and money.  Of course there are limits as to what we would do for money but as Winston Churchill pointed out to the dowager ... everyone is a whore in the end.

2. Ah.  Here it is.  Morality is subservient to our self-interests but only in terms of defense.  China is a danger to the US ?  You mean because they own all of the debt ?  Again - I don't care about this stuff and I'm fine with getting level with China but only if the discussion isn't dripping with emotional outrage.

 

I finds myself agreeing with Michael on this, we use the morality issue to have added weight to the argument, but one could ask where was our morality when we started using china in the first place. but here is the rub, we are doing business with china because of our greed, it's not a government issue or problem for them to solve. but rather major corporations that have moved manufacturing there in order to increase profits, just following the American dream, make as much money as you can and ***k the others.

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2 minutes ago, Army Guy said:

I finds myself agreeing with Michael on this, we use the morality issue to have added weight to the argument, but one could ask where was our morality when we started using china in the first place. but here is the rub, we are doing business with china because of our greed, it's not a government issue or problem for them to solve. but rather major corporations that have moved manufacturing there in order to increase profits, just following the American dream, make as much money as you can and ***k the others.

The problem is if some but not all corporations move business to China, those corps will have an advantage in price, profit and competition vs the ones who don't.  I don't blame the corporations, capitalism is a race to the bottom for better or worse.  The only thing that can put a check on capitalism when not desired is government.  Just ask the CCP.

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4 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

1. No.  Only trying to say that we are already in a quagmire if we're talking about morality and money.  Of course there are limits as to what we would do for money but as Winston Churchill pointed out to the dowager ... everyone is a whore in the end.

Yes I agree that everyone is a whore, not least our politicians who work in the interests of their corporate donors to better ensure re-election.

Trudeau and his Liberals are the biggest whores of all.  Harper's crew weren't too far behind.  Not least of those was John McCallum, fired for beating the CCP's line.  You wonder how many free proverbial "blowjobs" in China the CCP provided him.  This is called "elite capture".  https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/mccallum-out-ambassador-1.4994492

China is playing the game very well and we often don't seem to even notice there's one going on.  China is doing everything it can to gain an advantage on Western countries, which is why we should do the same towards China.  Zero sum.  Your move, Canada.

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There is no morality play with China...Canada (particularly) and other nations created the perfect "human rights" cover story, "Responsibility to Protect", International Criminal Court (ICC), yada, yada, yada, long before that for NATO military actions and UN sanctions.

But these were only applied for narrow western interests while ignoring economic complicity elsewhere.   And that's because....

Economics Trumps Virtue

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4 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

2. Ah.  Here it is.  Morality is subservient to our self-interests but only in terms of defense.  China is a danger to the US ?  You mean because they own all of the debt ?  Again - I don't care about this stuff and I'm fine with getting level with China but only if the discussion isn't dripping with emotional outrage.

Everything is subservient to our survival and security. You don't care about that? I'm trying to figure out just what you're arguing here. All you appear to be doing is disapproving of what everyone says without offering up anything yourself.

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17 minutes ago, Army Guy said:

I finds myself agreeing with Michael on this, we use the morality issue to have added weight to the argument, but one could ask where was our morality when we started using china in the first place.

We were hoping that the introduction of Capitalism would wean them off Communism. Which, to a large extent, it did. Unfortunately, it did not wean them off oppression and authoritarianism. And then Xi came along and whatever progress on freedoms had been made was quickly crushed. And then things got much worse.

17 minutes ago, Army Guy said:

but here is the rub, we are doing business with china because of our greed, it's not a government issue or problem for them to solve. but rather major corporations that have moved manufacturing there in order to increase profits, just following the American dream, make as much money as you can and ***k the others.

I long ago stopped believing that what is good for General Motors (or whatever) is good for the country. And anyone who still believed that should have had a wake-up call during the last recession, caused by the irresponsibility, greed, and lack of oversight of the American (and other) governments. So yes, it IS a government issue to reign in corporations and not allow them to outsource jobs - not all jobs - but certain types of jobs on a case by case basis.

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5 minutes ago, Argus said:

I long ago stopped believing that what is good for General Motors (or whatever) is good for the country. And anyone who still believed that should have had a wake-up call during the last recession, caused by the irresponsibility, greed, and lack of oversight of the American (and other) governments. So yes, it IS a government issue to reign in corporations and not allow them to outsource jobs - not all jobs - but certain types of jobs on a case by case basis.

 

But government still believes that, so it doesn't matter.   Why can't China act in the same way as Canada/Ontario to attract and keep automotive manufacturing by multinationals like GM, Toyota, Ford, BMW, or AUDI/VW ?    China is now far and away the largest automotive market in the world...and biggest for GM.

If Canada or the U.S. cannot or will not compete on labour costs, taxes, regulation, etc., then jobs and capital will flow to those places that will.

 

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10 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

If Canada or the U.S. cannot or will not compete on labour costs, taxes, regulation, etc., then jobs and capital will flow to those places that will.

Which is why we need tariffs.

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3 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

Tariffs already existed, and are part of the WTO framework.    When the United States (Trump) doubled down on tariffs to impact the globalist trend, Canada flipped out.

You mean when they cheated and made up excuses.

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Just now, Argus said:

You mean when they cheated and made up excuses.

 

Not at all, Canada was complicit in aluminum and steel transshipments/dumping with China and other producers.   The "excuse" was to stop Canada from doing this, and concurrent with Trump's tariffs, Canada changed trade laws to stop the dumping.

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13 hours ago, Army Guy said:

one could ask where was our morality when we started using china in the first place.

Canada has no "moral legs". When Canadian liberals startwith their empty virtue signalling, all the Chinese need do is point to the natives and various UN declarations on Canada's treatment of indegenous human rights.

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