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Moonlight Graham

China vs USA: who will reign in the 21st century?

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6 hours ago, Dougie93 said:

They [China] are not the NSDAP [National Socialists aka Nazis].    If you think the Chinese are the Nazis, then you don't know the Nazis.

Blind allegiance to the Chinese state and nation.  Work for the nation, fight for the nation, die for the nation.  Everyone sacrifice everything for the good of the nation.  National socialism.  Belief that your nation and race is destined to rule the world.  Commit genocide against racial/cultural minorities.  Purify the nation.  Lock up or kill the non-compliant.  Build a military war machine.  Create a national myth of resurgence.  https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/11/17/uighurs-their-supporters-decry-chinese-concentration-camps-genocide-after-xinjiang-documents-leaked/

The USSR was an economic union consisting of many different nations and many different cultures.  Workers of the world unite.  Chinese are only loyal to the Chinese.  Proletariat and bourgeoisie are dead in China, all work for the nation now.  Maoism was murdered in 1978, buried in 1989. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deng_Xiaoping

There is no ideology in China other than do whatever it takes to make China stronger...by whatever means necessary.  Capitalism, socialism, whatever it takes.  An ideology of no ideology is the purest and most adaptable ideology of all.  The weakness of the USA is blind adherence to ideology: blind faith in their military might, capitalism, free markets, fear of socialism.  Fear of "socialism" & blind faith in free markets has made healthcare and education decay in the US, only the wealthy can access the good stuff while the masses rot.  The masses and wealthy all need to be strong to defeat the next great threat.  Profit is king in America. In China, China is king.  Everyone is fighting each other in America while the China hive plows forward.  Adapt or die.

Who will reign in the 21st century:  China or USA?  I say China, as per above.

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7 hours ago, Dougie93 said:

All of China's supposed wealth is in US Dollars, those can only be redeemed in the American Hegenomy, it's called the Flight to Quality.

Once Chinese domestic consumption hits critical mass, watch out.  Right now Americans etc consume Chinese-made products.  Watch what happens when 1.3 billion Chinese can afford to buy Chinese made products.

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4 minutes ago, Moonlight Graham said:

.....There is no ideology in China other than do whatever it takes to make China stronger...by whatever means necessary.  Capitalism, socialism, whatever it takes.  An ideology of no ideology is the purest and most adaptable ideology of all.  The weakness of the USA is blind adherence to ideology: blind faith in their military might, capitalism, free markets, fear of socialism.  Fear of "socialism" & blind faith in free markets has made healthcare and education decay in the US, only the wealthy can access the good stuff while the masses rot. 

 

A China vs. USA bait thread ?   OK...I'll bite

Incorrect...there is an ideology in China...mimic what the USA did in the 20th century.   I have seen it myself...in person.  

...and "good stuff" healthcare is accessible by millions in the USA through private and public insurance programs, not just the wealthy.

Healthcare in China is ranked 144th in the world, with wide disparities for the most basic services.

China sends its best students to the USA....there is a reason for this.

 

 

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6 hours ago, Dougie93 said:

Have some historical perspective : "ZOMG The Communists Are Ten Feet Tall !!!"

That's called a Red Scare.   It was nonsense then, it's nonsense now.

That's a good point.  I hope I'm wrong.

The USSR lost because their ideological base was inferior.  No solid support to stand on.  Chinese ideology (win at all costs by any means necessary) may be superior to America's.  China saw the writing on the wall with the fall of the USSR, so they adapted, with incredible results.  Adapt or die.

China can be a democracy, communist, fascist, whatever, doesn't matter.  Demographics + time.  1.3 billion vs 300 million.  Simple math.

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1 minute ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

A China vs. USA bait thread ?   OK...I'll bite

Incorrect...there is an ideology in China...mimic what the USA did in the 20th century.   I have seen it myself...in person.

Watch the great powers of the world burn all their money fighting huge wars and then have lots of babies and invent stuff?  Yup that's how America did it and how China is doing it.

1 minute ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

...and "good stuff" healthcare is accessible by millions in the USA through private and public insurance programs, not just the wealthy.

Healthcare in China is ranked 144th in the world, with wide disparities for the most basic services.

China sends its best students to the USA....there is a reason for this.

Most Chinese are still desperately poor yes, no they don't have great health care.  But there's 1.3 billion of them.  The USA has 300 million people.  If 300 million are going to keep beating 1.3 billion who are rising fast they better be healthy and finish their homework.

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Just now, Moonlight Graham said:

Watch the great powers of the world burn all their money fighting huge wars and then have lots of babies and invent stuff?  Yup that's how America did it and how China is doing it.

 

America did both at the same time....China can't.   China cannot project conventional military power beyond its region...America has done this since the 19th century.

Advantage:   America

 

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Most Chinese are still desperately poor yes, no they don't have great health care.  But there's 1.3 billion of them.  The USA has 300 million people.  If 300 million are going to keep beating 1.3 billion who are rising fast they better be healthy and finish their homework.

 

China is over 5,000 years old and has succeeded / failed many times over regardless of population.   The 20th century failure(s) cost millions of Chinese lives, and it was the Americans who took care of a mid-century problem with the Imperial Japanese Army and Navy....China's population was over 500 million compared to Japan's 65 million.

The USA's population is 330 million and it is the world's #1 destination for immigrants...for over 100 years...not China.    They did their homework.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

America did both at the same time....China can't.   China cannot project conventional military power beyond its region...America has done this since the 19th century.

Advantage:   America

Give China 20 years.  How long did it take Germany to build a war machine out of ashes?   By around 2028 it's projected to surpass the USA in GDP.   

7 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

The USA's population is 330 million and it is the world's #1 destination for immigrants...for over 100 years...not China.    They did their homework.

China doesn't need immigrants.  It has 1.3 billion people, far too many.  It's offloading people to USA and Canada etc because it's overpopulated.  The Chinese are filling up our cities now, especially in Canada, and throughout the West because of population decline.  Good thing USA is the most in-demand destination for immigrants because it's going to need a lot more.  Looking forward to the first Chinese President and Prime Minister.

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Just now, Moonlight Graham said:

Give China 20 years.  How long did it take Germany to build a war machine out of ashes?   By around 2028 it's projected to surpass the USA in GDP.  

 

I already gave China 5,000 years....China's GDP is more dependent on exports to the USA....GDP per capita is far smaller because of the large population.

 

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China doesn't need immigrants.  It has 1.3 billion people, far too many.  It's offloading people to USA and Canada etc because it's overpopulated.  The Chinese are filling up our cities now, especially in Canada, and throughout the West because of population decline.  Good thing USA is the most in-demand destination for immigrants because it's going to need a lot more.  Looking forward to the first Chinese President and Prime Minister.

 

The USA has been #1 regardless of China....over 100 years.

China can't even figure out Hong Kong.

 

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7 hours ago, Dougie93 said:

You shouldn't even panic about Canadian Confederation coming apart, it's not the end of the world, it's a natural evolution.

All the provinces will be better off in a customs union without the dictatorship of the Laurentian Elites, who are a cabal of nattering fools to no good purpose.

Canada wasn't formed as a nation-state, it was formed as a security union against a United States that had just ended a civil war and had a massive standing army sitting around bored doing nothing.  Alaska was purchased by USA in 1867, that's not a coincidence.

Canadian provinces are still better unified, with as much sovereignty given to the provinces as possible.  Acting together as an economic and military bloc against ie: the Chinese is better than going it alone.  BC would become a client state of China in about 3 seconds if they separated, and in good time probably annexed willingly.

If you want to rip up confederation, then start over with 2.0, don't go it alone.  I'd be fine with 2.0, whatever works.  Adapt or die.

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15 hours ago, Moonlight Graham said:

If you want to rip up confederation, then start over with 2.0, don't go it alone.  I'd be fine with 2.0, whatever works.  Adapt or die.

Confederation is tearing itself apart in the face of the American Information Age revolution,  all I say is : let it burn.

 

Edited by Dougie93

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9 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

Confederation is tearing itself apart in the face of the American Information Age revolution,  all I say is : let it burn.

"Let it burn" isn't an argument.  Killing something because you hate it isn't good enough reason.  Reform is better than destroying Canada and i've laid out why, you haven't.  You could amend the constitution to give much more power and sovereignty to the provinces and they'd all sign on, it's the federal gov that would be the hang-up.

Anyways, back to practising my mandarin.

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4 minutes ago, Moonlight Graham said:

"Let it burn" isn't an argument. 

Nothing binds me to make an argument,  Confederation is destroying itself, I will simply dance on its grave.

 

Edited by Dougie93

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18 minutes ago, Moonlight Graham said:

Anyways, back to practising my mandarin.

Indeed, Canada is America's little China girl.

 

Edited by Dougie93

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21 hours ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

The USA has been #1 regardless of China....over 100 years.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Every great hegemonic empire in world history has fallen.  The Roman Empire is crumbled rocks you can take selfies in front of in Italy.

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China can't even figure out Hong Kong.

America can't figure out North Vietnam or the streets of Chicago, it is still the global hegemon.

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I already gave China 5,000 years....China's GDP is more dependent on exports to the USA....GDP per capita is far smaller because of the large population.

US's GDP is dependent on China factory labour.  Stalemate. 

When China's domestic consumption ramps up, 1.3 billion consumers buying Chinese-made goods counterfeiting US IP, well that's a lot of GDP.  Then they'll start making more of their own IP/inventions, like Japan and South Korea has.  Will Google and Facebook be able to compete on a userbase of half a billion when China's version of Google and FB has a userbase of 1.3 billion?

GDP per capita is small in China (though continually growing, that's the point), but what matters is total economic power, meaning total nominal GDP, not per capita.  China has 4x the population as USA, that means per capita GDP in China needs to be only 1/4 the GDP per capita as the US to pass it in total nominal GDP, which it's projected to do around 2028.  Larger total GDP = larger total political power on the global chessboard.  US does not have anywhere near the highest GDP per capita in the world, yet it is the global hegemon because it leads in total GDP.

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3 minutes ago, Moonlight Graham said:

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Every great hegemonic empire in world history has fallen.  The Roman Empire is crumbled rocks you can take selfies in front of in Italy.

 

Sure, but that doesn't mean the USA will "fall" because of China.   There are many other possibilities.

 

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America can't figure out North Vietnam or the streets of Chicago, it is still the global hegemon.

 

Vietnam is now a U.S. trading partner with port visits by U.S. Navy ships.   Chicago is not seeking independence from Washington.

 

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US's GDP is dependent on China factory labour.  Stalemate. 

That's not true...the USA is less dependent on export/import trade than China or Canada.   U.S. labour productivity is improved by more automation.

 

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When China's domestic consumption ramps up, 1.3 billion consumers buying Chinese-made goods counterfeiting US IP, well that's a lot of GDP.  Then they'll start making more of their own IP/inventions, like Japan and South Korea has.  Will Google and Facebook be able to compete on a userbase of half a billion when China's version of Google and FB has a userbase of 1.3 billion?

 

Yes, because Google and Facebook already have user bases far larger than the population of China....worldwide.

 

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GDP per capita is small in China (though continually growing, that's the point), but what matters is total economic power, meaning total nominal GDP, not per capita.  China has 4x the population as USA, that means per capita GDP in China needs to be only 1/4 the GDP per capita as the US to pass it in total nominal GDP, which it's projected to do around 2028.  Larger total GDP = larger total political power on the global chessboard.  US does not have anywhere near the highest GDP per capita in the world, yet it is the global hegemon because it leads in total GDP.

 

The U.S. is the global hegemon for several reasons that China cannot overcome with GDP alone.   China finances U.S. debt to keep Americans in the business of protecting trade flows and that includes petroleum.   China is not yet capable of taking on that role.   This is why Canada's previous foreign minister begged Trump to keep America fulfilling that task....nobody else can do it as of now.

 

 

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1 minute ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

Sure, but that doesn't mean the USA will "fall" because of China.   There are many other possibilities.

I don't think it will fall, it's just eroding especially vis a vis other countries.  it may become the 2nd or 3rd largest power.  India, 1.2 billion peeps, is projected to pass US as well in coming decades, if trends more or less continue.

1 minute ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

Vietnam is now a U.S. trading partner with port visits by U.S. Navy ships.   Chicago is not seeking independence from Washington.

Sure, but Chicago still can't be controlled. If Hong Kong were a city inside Chinese borders the protesters would all be shot or jailed.  Hong Kong does show some limits of Chinese power though.

1 minute ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

That's not true...the USA is less dependent on export/import trade than China or Canada.   U.S. labour productivity is improved by more automation.

Automation could possibly decimate China's current fast rise.  AI will change the entire economics of humanity within 30 years.

1 minute ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

The U.S. is the global hegemon for several reasons that China cannot overcome with GDP alone.   China finances U.S. debt to keep Americans in the business of protecting trade flows and that includes petroleum.   China is not yet capable of taking on that role.   This is why Canada's previous foreign minister begged Trump to keep America fulfilling that task....nobody else can do it as of now.

Maybe, i don't know how the whole China-US debt thing works.

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3 minutes ago, Moonlight Graham said:

I don't think it will fall, it's just eroding especially vis a vis other countries.  it may become the 2nd or 3rd largest power.  India, 1.2 billion peeps, is projected to pass US as well in coming decades, if trends more or less continue.

 

...or other countries are catching up.   Nothing wrong with that.

The Commonwealth empire collapsed over time with positive results for many occupied nations...including Canada.   Does that mean getting "passed" ?

 

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Sure, but Chicago still can't be controlled. If Hong Kong were a city inside Chinese borders the protesters would all be shot or jailed.  Hong Kong does show some limits of Chinese power though.

 

Chicago is not subject to federal control.   Add Taiwan to the list of Chinese borders that China cannot bring to heel.   Empire building starts at home.

 

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Automation could possibly decimate China's current fast rise.  AI will change the entire economics of humanity within 30 years.

 

China does automation and AI fairly well with western and domestic engineering.   But the total society cannot be overhauled so quickly, including agribusiness.

China is doing well, and will do better, but that does not spell the demise of the USA or EU.

 

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Maybe, i don't know how the whole China-US debt thing works.

 

China buys U.S. debt for the same reasons as other nations....as a safe haven hedge.   The U.S. government has delayed but never materially defaulted on foreign held treasury notes/bills.    The U.S. has great leverage and advantage as long as the almighty dollar remains the world's principal reserve currency.  

 

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2 hours ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

...or other countries are catching up.   Nothing wrong with that

A foreign country that is a rival to the US and western countries in general catching up to and projected to surpass the US is threat to us in the west, just like the USSR was.  I think China is much bigger potential threat, the USSR had an fatally flawed economic system and a population only marginally larger than the US.

2 hours ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

Chicago is not subject to federal control.   Add Taiwan to the list of Chinese borders that China cannot bring to heel.   Empire building starts at home.

I'm not saying China is an all-powerful empire yet.  My OP is arguing sometime in the 21st century it will be.  First it will match the US in power as the USSR did so we'll have a bi-polar global order, then China could fly past the US and become the global hegemon.  China isn't in the business of annexing foreign countries or flexing its military too much yet, that would be bad for business. Their empire will be economic first.  If they did annex Hong Kong though, who would stop them?  Who stopped the Russians re: Crimea?  China is biding their time, crouching tiger hidden dragon, they aren't stupid.  Hong Kong and Taiwan could be the canary in the coal mine we should watch for though re: Chinese military aggression.

2 hours ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

China is doing well, and will do better, but that does not spell the demise of the USA or EU.

I'm very worried about China, even if they don't eventually surpass the US, which i hope they don't. I'm rooting for the USA, and the West.  They're already messing with us.

2 hours ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

China buys U.S. debt for the same reasons as other nations....as a safe haven hedge.   The U.S. government has delayed but never materially defaulted on foreign held treasury notes/bills.    The U.S. has great leverage and advantage as long as the almighty dollar remains the world's principal reserve currency. 

Thanks.  The US is always a safe investment, hope it remains so.  Invest in China ETF's too, you'll get rich with them.  I wonder what Warren Buffet thinks of China's economy.

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4 minutes ago, Moonlight Graham said:

A foreign country that is a rival to the US and western countries in general catching up to and projected to surpass the US is threat to us in the west, just like the USSR was.  I think China is much bigger potential threat, the USSR had an fatally flawed economic system and a population only marginally larger than the US.

 

All countries are rivals to the U.S. at some level, including "western" countries.   America has fought wars allied with and against "western" countries.  The U.S. is not responsible for protecting the "west" from rivals and competition, especially when they will not protect themselves.    U.S. interests may or may not align with other western and non-western nations, regardless of China.

 

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I'm not saying China is an all-powerful empire yet.  My OP is arguing sometime in the 21st century it will be.  First it will match the US in power as the USSR did so we'll have a bi-polar global order, then China could fly past the US and become the global hegemon.  China isn't in the business of annexing foreign countries or flexing its military too much yet, that would be bad for business. Their empire will be economic first.  If they did annex Hong Kong though, who would stop them?  Who stopped the Russians re: Crimea?  China is biding their time, crouching tiger hidden dragon, they aren't stupid.  Hong Kong and Taiwan could be the canary in the coal mine we should watch for though re: Chinese military aggression.

 

That's China's choice...not America's burden.    Hong Kong is part of China !

The United States cannot save the world/west from Chinese influence, nor should it attempt to do so. 

Biding their time ?    5,000 years and counting....

 

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I'm very worried about China, even if they don't eventually surpass the US, which i hope they don't. I'm rooting for the USA, and the West.  They're already messing with us.

 

Misplaced confidence in the USA is just as dangerous as fear of China.    Nation states have interests...not friends.

Sometimes the West is its own worst enemy.

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1 hour ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

All countries are rivals to the U.S. at some level, including "western" countries.   America has fought wars allied with and against "western" countries.  The U.S. is not responsible for protecting the "west" from rivals and competition, especially when they will not protect themselves.    U.S. interests may or may not align with other western and non-western nations, regardless of China.

I'm not saying the US has a responsibility to protect the West, but it's by far the most powerful western country.  It has a higher GDP than the EU, which is crazy to think about.

If the US wants to counter China as it keeps growing in power, it will need the rest of the West or at least NATO countries, and if the rest of NATO wants to best counter China it will need the US.  Trump has arrogantly gone it alone vs China right now and the results haven't been great.  For a man that knows about leverage in negotiations he's been a fool here.  The west has far more leverage together than alone.

1 hour ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

The United States cannot save the world/west from Chinese influence, nor should it attempt to do so.

Stop being so defensive.  If the US wants to let the rest of the West be swallowed by Chinese influence, me thinks that's a horrid outcome for the US.  They'd never stand by and allow it.  It's in America's interests to have strong allies, that's why they prop up Israel, Japan, South Korea etc. 

1 hour ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

Biding their time ?    5,000 years and counting....

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

1 hour ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

Misplaced confidence in the USA is just as dangerous as fear of China.    Nation states have interests...not friends.

Judging by this thread clearly i have no overconfidence in the USA.  I agree, they do have interests.  NATO exists because of common interests, and is going nowhere, despite deadbeat members.  But that's another issue you're conflating with this one.

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11 hours ago, Dougie93 said:

Nothing binds me to make an argument,  Confederation is destroying itself, I will simply dance on its grave.

You want Canada and by extension NATO to become weaker, while China gets stronger.

Me thinks your priorities aren't straight.  You're motivated by hate and resentment, not logic.  Me thinks in 30 years you'll be eating your words when you're eating with chopsticks in the retirement home.

Loblaws sells Chinese New Years decorations now during the season.  Target in the US has a section in the greeting cards aisle for Chinese greeting cards.  Canadian public libraries in many cities, even outside BC and the GTA, have sections for Chinese-language books and newspapers.  NEWSPAPERS!  What's the likelihood that Chinese will become an official language of BC in the next few decades?  We're being colonized and we don't even know it.

Look closely:

cibc-interest-rate-cut_feature.jpg

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1 minute ago, Moonlight Graham said:

I'm not saying the US has a responsibility to protect the West, but it's by far the most powerful western country.  It has a higher GDP than the EU, which is crazy to think about.

 

The U.S. is the most powerful country in the world.    But there are still limits to such power.   The EU has refused to spend adequately on its own defense.

 

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If the US wants to counter China as it keeps growing in power, it will need the rest of the West or at least NATO countries, and if the rest of NATO wants to best counter China it will need the US.  Trump has arrogantly gone it alone vs China right now and the results haven't been great.  For a man that knows about leverage in negotiations he's been a fool here.  The west has far more leverage together than alone.

 

NATO is not organized to counter China or influence the Pacific rim....entirely different geopolitics and U.S. interests.   The U.S. and China are the world's biggest trading partners.   Trump has done far more on the China "file" than other western nations.  The EU has been useless.

 

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Stop being so defensive.  If the US wants to let the rest of the West be swallowed by Chinese influence, me thinks that's a horrid outcome for the US.  They'd never stand by and allow it.  It's in America's interests to have strong allies, that's why they prop up Israel, Japan, South Korea etc.

 

It is not the USA's role to "let" anything...why do you have such an inflated view and expectation for a single nation among many in the world ?  Strong allies are hard to find these days....far easier to find NATO deadbeats.

 

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Judging by this thread clearly i have no overconfidence in the USA.  I agree, they do have interests.  NATO exists because of common interests, and is going nowhere, despite deadbeat members.  But that's another issue you're conflating with this one.

 

The USA owes your expectations nothing....fear China if you want to, but don't expect America to join the fray except in very narrow contexts of trade and opportunities. 

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10 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

It is not the USA's role to "let" anything...why do you have such an inflated view and expectation for a single nation among many in the world ?

Because it's the global hegemon.  The USA defeated the USSR, with help from western allies.  I'm pretty certain the USA doesn't want B.C. to become a client province of the PRC.

Maybe the US and the west can play India and China off each other, who knows.

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5 hours ago, Moonlight Graham said:

Because it's the global hegemon.  The USA defeated the USSR, with help from western allies.  I'm pretty certain the USA doesn't want B.C. to become a client province of the PRC.

Maybe the US and the west can play India and China off each other, who knows.

 

So the U.S. as global hegemon is all you have ever known and you want that to continue...got it. 

The USSR collapsed more do to internal failures.

China has made amazing progress and lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty...far better than the Soviet Union.

Then there is this.....

China Is Not the Enemy

 

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