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Panic, Ignorance, Shut Up Already

Charles Anthony

merged "Fear and the coronavirus 2" into this thread

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Just now, betsy said:

 

Did you hear about the returning snow birds?  They go straight to grocery stores instead of self-isolation!

 

Can't make this stuff up.   Trudeau tells all Canadians to come home...all 3,000,000 of them ?

So the U.S. snowbirds pile into their RVs and SUVs and make a run for the border.

Their Canadian dollars are worth less in the USA, so better to cross the border and hit a Wal-Mart to load up on supplies, putting more pressure on stock in Canada.

Someday this is going to make another great Zombie movie.

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On 3/22/2020 at 5:58 PM, Argus said:

If you look around the western world Canada appears to be leading just about everyone in testing. We've done 88,000 tests so far, which is way more, on a population basis, than almost any other western country. We've tested and isolated a lot more people. I would suggest this is one possible reason why we have so few cases, about 1400, compared to just about every other western nation. We have way fewer cases than even smaller states like Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and the Netherlands. Austria has 3500, Switzerland 7400. Switzerland has had 98 deaths, the Netherlands 179, Belgium 75. So our 20 deaths look pretty good.

The US, of course, is fast becoming a disaster. New  York State alone has 13,000 cases, with 114 dead.

Could be the density of population patterns factors heavily in this. 

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On 3/20/2020 at 3:55 AM, Yzermandius19 said:

Far better. Every single African nation's environmental record is far worse than any first world western nation's environmental record, by several orders of magnitude. Getting hung up on per capita carbon emissions is a total canard.

Photo reminds me of the aftermath of a climate change protest.  ;)

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On 3/22/2020 at 8:32 AM, betsy said:

There's the keyword there.  Look at the students celebrating March break on a beach!  Didn't we all feel invincible at a certain age?

Mind you....it's their parents or, most likely their grandparents, or anyone with underlying conditions  who are vulnerable.  Maybe, a lot of young ones can afford to celebrate and disregard the warning (as long as they don't carry them back to their vulnerable kins).

I felt invincible when I was much younger but I also knew that if I broke the rules there were consequences. 

So I guess the kids should just set up house on the beach?  Because home is exactly where they would be headed at the end of the day.  Every single one a possible vector for the virus. 

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1 hour ago, mowich said:

I felt invincible when I was much younger but I also knew that if I broke the rules there were consequences. 

So I guess the kids should just set up house on the beach?  Because home is exactly where they would be headed at the end of the day.  Every single one a possible vector for the virus. 

Unfortunately you can't jail them all, and people just shrug off a ticket, so what can you do, trust that they don't do it again....I mean some people are just arrogant assholes you don't care about anyone but themselves...arresting them for a 14 day self isolation period might work...in some hockey arena, or military barracks.... where they can practice social distancing with no WIFI or intra net....they'd go crazy....

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Ok there has been a lot of talk about the corona virus in Italy and how its mortality rate is now higher than China and using it as a reference to suggest this virus will accelerate and kill us all.

Compared to other countries in Europe, specifically Britain, Italy had less time to prepare and it is now believed the virus was widely circulating BEFORE it was detected making the hindsight as to why they were caught off guard more explainable.

Next and I had mentioned it before but mention it again Italy has a demographic profile of having more seniors and who live tightly connected to family and friends even if not livng with them and they are more likely to smoke when they are old. 23% of Italy's population is over 65.

Add to that the fact their e capacity for hospitals to care for the most seriously ill patients is not the same as in other countries. Interestingly next door, Germany has a population fo 23% over 65 and yet the lowest death rates in Europe from this virus.

Interestingly there was a large movement of Italians from the North to the South of Italy in response to the outbreak the last two weeks which would suggest trying to lock down Italians is too late. It does though seem the actual recovery rates remain consistent and the death rates are flattening in Italy although it is crucial to understand comparing Italy to Britain or Germany or Canada is meaningless as we do not have proper early reporting of the illness in any country and especially in Italy with a condensation of older smokers in specific area.

That's the problem with jumping to conclusions about any of the stats on the virus.  They can not be used to extrapolate accurate cause and effect, recovery or mortality rates. The stats we have only deal with reported cases and the vast majority have never been reported.

It is becoming more and more apparent the attempt to slow down the transmission rate bu quarantine or house arrest is going to prove foolish as it becomes apparent this virus probaly circulated and was transmitted far earlier than we thought it was and when it did show up the spread was in fact peaking but we may have delayed a natural peaking and decreasing of the virus by interfering with it raising to its proper levels.

The assumption we had to try slow it down to prevent bottle necks at hospitals is ay by day being debunked by status showing no more than 10% of the people with the virus need hospitalization and it may be in future epidemics the key will be not to panic and try lock people down but focus on home care for those who get it with respirators sent to homes.

What we are now seeing is some of us will die. We think its the virus but its not the virus, its the result of lowered immunities and chronic medical conditions which are inevitable medical consequences and piggy back on any cold or virus not just the one we now discuss.

What we do know about Italy is that it reported 793 coronavirus RELATED deaths last Friday. They determine that rate of course by dividing their total number of REPORTED cases by the total no of deaths.  which on that no. I mentioned was 9.5%. Yet. Yet the US for the same relative period had a  death rate of 1.2%.

So jumping at this death rate is misleading and dangerously so. If the reporting of actual known cases is not done properly, the death rate is not determined correctly.

Add to that is the fact that acountry's death rate constantly changes as new cases and deaths get reported, and it continues to vary depending on how many people get tested for COVID-19.

My source for the above can be found at: https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-death-rates-by-country-based-on-case-fatality-ratio-2020-3

So I again make the following argument and you can also find it in the above article and in many more articles if you want. What we can say at this time is that widespread testing could mean a lower death rate because it could identify people we could then keep away from immune defficient people and the elderly.  However this assumpton we must be house arrested from each other makes no sense because  most COVID-19 cases — about 80% — are considered mild.  Therefore there is no need to isolate us from each other, only from the immune defficient or elderly.

The argument I make has been done in South Korea and Taiwan and has worked and we have done it in the past with Sars, Avian Fue, Swine Flu, etc.  Yes milder cases go undetectected so transmitted unintentionally to the elderly or immune defficient. So instead of over-reacting and panicking about something not capable of being detected the key is to practice proper hygiene, i.e., hand washing, food preparation. This was and should have always been the case.

This idea remaining under house arrest indefinitely is the way to manage this is illogical. It does not deal with the issue of proper hygiene, it in fact avoids the issue until the next outbreak.

The idea we could shut down the world economy indefinitely without having a definitive time line is absurd. The amount of damage it will do to the infrastructure that will then go on to kill more people than the virus will make no sense.

There are now billions of dollars that would otherwise have gone to medical charities for research that may not go to them now because 90% of the donations come from businesses now not able to generate revenue to pay for those medical research projects.

Placing people in debt creates stress related illnesses raising levels of lethat side effects from cancer, heart disease, diabetes, to name just three diseases that skyrocket with stress exposure. In terms of the increase in domestic violence, sexual molestation in isolated locked up families, alcohol and drug abuse it will be hard to estimate but those rates will rise.

More importantly this is a real danger to democratic freedoms and civil liberties. Some of you do not understand, if the government passes laws that invade your privacy in the name of disease prevention, it won't stop there, it will also be used for political control reasons.

The kind of measures that justify house arresting you in the name of a virus means your freedoms don't come back once the virus ends.

There is always a virus . Viruses do not end.

I am not buying into the excuse we are trying to avoid bottlenecks at hospitals. I believe some genuinely believe that but I do not believe most immunologists believe that. I believe they believe our governments over-reacted to poor pandemic planning and hopefully we can now learn from such mistakes so we do NOT repeat this.

I can tell you the longer people are under house arrest, the more likely they will say enough is enough. We in Canada live in a very sheltered world where we have never had our civil liberties suspended as they are now. Our very basic right of mobility in the Charter poof was gone in less than a day in the name of a virus.

Finally lets also be clear on the difference between a death and mortality rate often mistakenly used as meaning one and the same in this matter.

"The death rate of a disease is different from its mortality rate — the latter is the number of deaths out of the number of people in an at-risk population. A death rate is not a reflection of the likelihood that a given person will die."

source for the above is also: https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-death-rates-by-country-based-on-case-fatality-ratio-2020-3

 

.

 

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2 hours ago, Rue said:

It is becoming more and more apparent the attempt to slow down the transmission rate bu quarantine or house arrest is going to prove foolish as it becomes apparent this virus probaly circulated and was transmitted far earlier than we thought it was and when it did show up the spread was in fact peaking but we may have delayed a natural peaking and decreasing of the virus by interfering with it raising to its proper levels.

Rue you need to put this in the hands of the WHO for the same reason MLW's climate rock-stars should be contacting the IPCC with their proof there's nothing to worry about.

If you're right you can count on the entire planet throwing its panties at you - people everywhere will be singing Kumbaya from their balconies!

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4 hours ago, Rue said:

So jumping at this death rate is misleading and dangerously so. If the reporting of actual known cases is not done properly, the death rate is not determined correctly

I agree with your statistical analysis and observations. It seems you have some experience with counting. This made me think about how the virus kills those who are already near death, the elderly with respiratory or heart conditions. If any of those poor souls get the virus, it shall be lethal. For example, Person X is in an old age home, bedridden, and will soon pass on. Why? Because that is just the way of things. Then, the virus blows through the old-age home, and person X gets it and expires. Reason for death was the virus.

4 hours ago, Rue said:

this virus probaly circulated and was transmitted far earlier than we thought it was and when it did show up the spread was in fact peaking

This is what I've started to wonder as well. It's possible the virus has already been among us undetected for a long time. Nobody would even know.

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13 hours ago, OftenWrong said:

I agree with your statistical analysis and observations. It seems you have some experience with counting. This made me think about how the virus kills those who are already near death, the elderly with respiratory or heart conditions. If any of those poor souls get the virus, it shall be lethal. For example, Person X is in an old age home, bedridden, and will soon pass on. Why? Because that is just the way of things. Then, the virus blows through the old-age home, and person X gets it and expires. Reason for death was the virus.

This is what I've started to wonder as well. It's possible the virus has already been among us undetected for a long time. Nobody would even know.

Like you I am questioning it all. I do get it is very dangerous for some but I do think it's not the black plague. I also can not see this shut down going on as long as some suggest. The economy  keeps more people alive than any forced isolation.

The last couple of days you can feel some politicians growing more power hungry and people demanding crackdowns.  What next? Do we call out the army to force people to stay home..really?

Man the illuminati conspiracy people are having a field day with this. .....me I just see incompetent bureaucrats caught flat footed but man it's disturbing indeed to see us put  under house and somd welcoming it and thinking government totalitarian crack downs stop viruses. Its surreal.

Edited by Rue

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15 hours ago, eyeball said:

Rue you need to put this in the hands of the WHO for the same reason MLW's climate rock-stars should be contacting the IPCC with their proof there's nothing to worry about.

If you're right you can count on the entire planet throwing its panties at you - people everywhere will be singing Kumbaya from their balconies!

Actually your continued reference to me denying global warning is false. I no more deny viruses exist than I do air pollution and the negative effects of both. The fact I question how governments choose to deal with both does not mean I deny viruses or air pollution so enough with the false analogy.

I also think your faith in the WHO is misguided and naive. It's no messiah leading your salvation, just a bunch of corrupt  inept bureaucrats.

I prefer going directly to medical research from immunologists..but hey to each their own way.

I have respectful disagreement with you and Z over this..not too much just in the degree of faith in government intervention.

 

 

Edited by Rue

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1 hour ago, Rue said:

Actually your continued reference to me denying global warning is false.

I wasn't referring to your views on climate change I was referring to your immunological prowess. But I have no doubt your intellect would shine as brightly in the field of climatology.

Quote

 

I no more deny viruses exist than I do air pollution and the negative effects of both. The fact I question how governments choose to deal with both does not mean I deny viruses or air pollution so enough with the false analogy.

I also think your faith in the WHO is misguided and naive. It's no messiah leading your salvation, just a bunch of corrupt  inept bureaucrats.

 

What's really naive is your assumption that I have the faith you imagine. I certainly have faith in the idea and the need for and importance of science based international authorities but its hard to have much faith in them given the lacklustre often begrudging support they receive from national governments not to mention the howling windstorm of partisan hatred directed towards them.

Quote

I prefer going directly to medical research from immunologists..but hey to each their own way.

 I do too and for a minute there it looked like you were one.  I haven't seen your resume but as I recall you're also a lawyer, a professor, a psychologist so why not an immunologist too.

Quote

I have respectful disagreement with you and Z over this..not too much just in the degree of faith in government intervention.

I'm just having a little respectful fun rue don't take it so seriously.

My faith in government is as absent as yours but its my faith in the governed that's really being tested now.

Edited by eyeball

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1 hour ago, Rue said:

I also think your faith in the WHO is misguided and naive. It's no messiah leading your salvation, just a bunch of corrupt  inept bureaucrats.

I prefer going directly to medical research from immunologists..but hey to each their own way.

So you're saying that the WHO isn't taking direction from the scientists, doctors, epidemiologists and "immunologists" that work for/with it?  You're better a better judge of this sort of research?  

No doubt there's a lot of bureaucracy involved with UN organizations, but the D E E P S T A T E corruption theories can explain away literally everything if you're willing to do a bit of mental gymnastics.  

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1 hour ago, Moonbox said:

So you're saying that the WHO isn't taking direction from the scientists, doctors, epidemiologists and "immunologists" that work for/with it?  You're better a better judge of this sort of research?  

No doubt there's a lot of bureaucracy involved with UN organizations, but the D E E P S T A T E corruption theories can explain away literally everything if you're willing to do a bit of mental gymnastics.  

If they actually were and are  I would be o.k. with their releases.

What I am saying is I prefer to go directly to immunologists in various countries such as the US, Britain, Canada, and skip them if I can.

Me personally I know sweet fuck all...I am no immunologist, lol. I am just debating risk management approaches or cautioning about misusing stats.

As for the WHO No I do not trust the WHO due to what doctors have told me about them.  It's another thread to say why.  

I do not consider the WHO deepstate just part of a compromised larger network.. I am really not sure what a deep state is unless we refer to meditation or sleep. I would argue the WHO is politically compromised the same way for example I would the entire UN or say Olympics Committee. Too much politics and corruption.

So I prefer reading immunologists in medical research journals...but to your last point there is politics in medical research as well.  So I get your point. I am not as close minded as I sound..just very very careful what I read.

Edited by Rue

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So it turns out China is only reporting positive tests which have symptoms. It's not reporting the positive tests of those who feel fine.

I know I'm shocked - SHOCKED to discover China under-reporting the number of people with the disease. I'm sure everyone else is too.

Edited by Argus
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3 minutes ago, Argus said:

So it turns out China is only reporting positive tests which have symptoms. It's not reporting the positive tests of those who feel fine.

I know I'm shocked - SHOCKED to discover China under-reporting the number of people with the disease. I'm sure everyone else is too.

I'm not shocked at all. I don't doubt China's government is being duplicitous, it is how governments roll after all.

What shocks me is the number of governed people on the planet who expect anything different from any governments. There's no real willingness to record audit and validate that what they say matches up with what they do. Some people think this sort accountability is tantamount to an attack on everyone's free speech - a cure that's worse than the disease.  Trust me, politicians the world over are in near perfect agreement and alignment on this. They're really not even the problem here, the governed are.

My greatest hope is that this crisis will shock humanity into completely upending their relationship with their leaders.  I do fear what that might take and I can see where Extinction Rebellion is coming from.  They seem as cold-hearted as a cabal of insurance actuaries but at least they're being honest about it.

 

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1 hour ago, Argus said:

So it turns out China is only reporting positive tests which have symptoms. It's not reporting the positive tests of those who feel fine.

Number of COVID-19 cases compared to recoveries.

https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-global-latest-death-toll-total-deaths-fatalities-1494252

 

The under-reporting from China's government would suggest the red line in the above graph would be rising somewhere between the green and blue line....

I can see why some experts are predicting up to 70% of the human race could catch this before things settle down. I can also see why singing Hallelujah in church on Easter might be a tad optimistic too.

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Had a long talk with my good friend in UK who is prominent guy in the NHS.  He said at 95% ECU saturation (in Manchester area) is breaking point for them, but at 87% and climbing fast, they are still coping.   His business partner is in China working on vaccine, so he gets some really current news.  His big worry is not the breakdown of the NHS from current situation, but the fact that nobody yet knows if this thing can re-infect.

I don't care what "ists" one listens to, reality is that if you DON'T slow down the transmission rate (and there is really only one way to do that right now...lock down since people won't self isolate in sufficient numbers) you will swamp the medical system wherever you are.  What happens then?   Look to Italy: essentially the "death squad" horror story of bureaucrats forced to make the "who lives, who dies" decisions that nobody wants to be forced to make, and even more don't want to be on the receiving end of such a decision.

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8 minutes ago, cannuck said:

I don't care what "ists" one listens to, reality is that if you DON'T slow down the transmission rate (and there is really only one way to do that right now...lock down since people won't self isolate in sufficient numbers) you will swamp the medical system wherever you are.  What happens then?   Look to Italy: essentially the "death squad" horror story of bureaucrats forced to make the "who lives, who dies" decisions that nobody wants to be forced to make, and even more don't want to be on the receiving end of such a decision.

This is what war is like, this is the fog of war

Just focus on the task in front of you, don't worry about the big picture

You are only in command of what you are in command of,  your mission & your men

We are on the battlefield now,, stay frosty

 

Edited by Dougie93

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What we really need are tests that show for COVID-19 antibodies so people who've survived can take the place of uninfected workers.

From each too each right...do we really have a choice?

Pay it forward pay it sideways but pay it back?  Only in people's dreams now.  The former world is passing. 

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Just now, eyeball said:

Pay it forward pay it sideways but pay it back?  Only in people's dreams now.  The former world is passing. 

 

Oh sure...the former world that you always bitch about.    Do you miss it already ?

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Just now, bush_cheney2004 said:

Oh sure...the former world that you always bitch about.    Do you miss it already ?

I'll certainly miss watching the door slamming its ass on the way out. Right-wing panic over the economics of the crisis is phenomenal.  I guess 3 decades of freaking out over climate change action has primed you all up. 

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1 minute ago, eyeball said:

What we really need are tests that show for COVID-19 antibodies so people who've survived can take the place of uninfected workers.

From each too each right...do we really have a choice?

Pay it forward pay it sideways but pay it back?  Only in people's dreams now.  The former world is passing. 

There IS a valid, proven serological assay that is in use to do just that.   Read a paper on it a few days ago (awaiting peer review).  Also, CDC is developing something similar.   What makes it tough is that the COVID-19 virus is very, very close to SARSCoV1 and SARSCoV2.

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1 minute ago, OftenWrong said:

It's amazing what virologists you people are becoming.

 

Maybe they stayed in a Holiday Inn Express® last night.

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