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In the meantime, London has lost more bus drivers to the bug than doctors. Buses crammed full of construction workers because they felt that they should be able to go to work if they wanted to and cou

Let me help you put your mind at ease. You don't need to argue this point. I hardly see anyone who thinks it. We can all see how this virus is bad and must be safeguarded against. All viruses that kil

Partial travel bans are like having a pissing section in a swimming pool.

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Just now, Infidel Dog said:

More exactly and from the peak:

2.926

2,738

2,266

1,089

1,554

You've got 2 more days to show me what you're talking about.

Actually the 1,089 and 1,554 are the lulls. That's how dire the situation is in the US. 

Expect the deaths reported to go up significantly tomorrow. But you can see the reliable lulls in the attached graph. 

Screen Shot 2020-12-08 at 2.01.44 PM.png

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If anybody's curious though here's the end of the first wave:

First-wave.jpg

Here's the end of another one on August 1:

Second-wave.jpg

So if really want to run and tell the king the sky is falling because there was a three day, fall to winter peak shortly after thanksgiving we maybe need to wait longer than a week before we start preaching full lockdown.

Edited by Infidel Dog
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15 minutes ago, Infidel Dog said:

And again, because of the way American stats are figured, we have to factor in Flu season and other fall/winter co-morbidities.

You could say that about Canada too. Here in Ontario we're tripling our case load from the Spring. And also more than tripling our positivity rate. 

It was a predictable second wave. 

My kid has need to be tested multiple times because kids present with mild COVID-19 systems so any fever or stuffy nose is treated with the worst case scenario. 

We're living in absolute crazy times. 

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7 hours ago, OftenWrong said:

Not a bad analysis. You did not factor in the effect of increased testing capacity that occurred since about September October. This has to be subtracted to find the real increase.

Same for the US data

"If we don't test, the infections won't exist."?  That makes no sense - these people are infected, whether tested or not.  Subtracting a subset of them so that the data doesn't look as bad would be dishonest.

Not to mention hospitalizations and deaths are increasing; artificially reducing the number of infections would make the virus look more serious and deadly.

 

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12 hours ago, OftenWrong said:

Not a bad analysis. You did not factor in the effect of increased testing capacity that occurred since about September October. This has to be subtracted to find the real increase.

Same for the US data

You factor that in. Which is why Hospitalization and Deaths are more important metrics. 

Positivity Rate is also one you should look at before Total cases. Worldometer doesn't really report on that so you have to do digging. 

In the Summer positivity rate was under 0.5% in Ontario its now bouncing between 3-5%. Today it was 4.4%. 

That's why when Trump scoffed at increased caseload, you could look at States that had Positivity Rates north of 20% and know he was Full of Shit. 

 

Edited by Boges
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On 12/9/2020 at 11:24 AM, Boges said:

You factor that in. Which is why Hospitalization and Deaths are more important metrics. 

Positivity Rate is also one you should look at before Total cases. Worldometer doesn't really report on that so you have to do digging. 

In the Summer positivity rate was under 0.5% in Ontario its now bouncing between 3-5%. Today it was 4.4%. 

That's why when Trump scoffed at increased caseload, you could look at States that had Positivity Rates north of 20% and know he was Full of Shit. 

 

Hospital deaths are way down compareitively. I havent looked in a week or two. Doesnt matter anymore, does it.

Factor, factum, fucked em all, I say latin, the deed

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On 12/10/2020 at 11:24 PM, OftenWrong said:

Hospital deaths are way down compareitively. I havent looked in a week or two. Doesnt matter anymore, does it.

Factor, factum, fucked em all, I say latin, the deed

Not in the US now. 

It's creeping up in Canada too. 

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1 hour ago, Boges said:

Not in the US now. 

It's creeping up in Canada too. 

I suggest then plotting a line of daily sample rates versus exposure rates. Will be a straight line, I think.

But understood it's a real problem. Just pointing out how we rubes get easily confused by comparing statistics in a complex system.

I do not deny the reality or the severity, I deny the methodology.

 

For example I keep hearing about the senior citizens group CARP on the radio. https://www.carp.ca/

These people are screaming, literally screaming about how the government has taken no action whatsoever to protect the elderly in LTC's. They have been screaming since March, writing letters to the minister and by advertising on the radio.

Still no action to date for the LTC's. Mr Ford and Mr Trudeau are sitting on their hands. They are not willing to pony up the money to do something that would be truly effective at stopping the most major source of deaths.

Yet they proselytize at every opportunity that we must make sacrifices to protect the most vulnerable.

I would like to know their rationale on that, but it is impossible to get them to even speak on it. Why is that, I wonder??

Edited by OftenWrong
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1 minute ago, OftenWrong said:

I suggest then plotting a line of daily sample rates versus exposure rates. Will be a straight line, I think.

But understood it's a real problem. Just pointing out how we rubes get easily confused by comparing statistics in a complex system.

I do not deny the reality or the severity, I deny the methodology.

For example I keep hearing about the senior citizens group CARP on the radio. https://www.carp.ca/

These people are screaming, literally screaming about how the government has taken no action whatsoever to protect the elderly in LTC's. They have been screaming since March, writing letters to the minister and by advertising on the radio.

Still no action to date for the LTC's. Mr Ford and Mr Trudeau are sitting on their hands. They are not willing to pony up the money to do something that would be truly effective at stopping the most major source of deaths.

Yet they proselytize at every opportunity that we must make sacrifices to protect the most vulnerable.

I would like to know their rationale on that, but it is impossible to get them to even speak on it. Why is that, I wonder??

I'd like to know what can be done in LTC homes? Especially private ones. 

The people in there are the prime target for COVID-19 and they're a captive audience amongst other people who are prime targets for COVID-19. 

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1 hour ago, Boges said:

I'd like to know what can be done in LTC homes? Especially private ones. 

The people in there are the prime target for COVID-19 and they're a captive audience amongst other people who are prime targets for COVID-19. 

I've given my own opinions. See page 1 of this thread, or somewhere round there...

You will find some ideas on the CARP web site.

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22 hours ago, Boges said:

I'd like to know what can be done in LTC homes?

Yeah. What to do about them? Not much apparently.

We could try a similar approach to what they are doing for prisoners. Too many people crammed into jails, and it's unsafe for the virus, so let at least 50% of them go.

California officials blast court ruling to reduce Orange County jail population

Article makes some good points.
Sheriff Don Barnes pushed back against the Orange County Superior Court, which ordered the reduction of the county's jail populations by 50% on Friday in an effort to achieve proper social distancing.

Judge Peter Wilson wrote “deliberate indifference to the substantial risk of serious harm from COVID-19 infection to … medically vulnerable people in custody violates their rights," according to KCBS-TV of Los Angeles.

Barnes announced an outbreak in the jails that stood at 138 cases on Friday, before infections jumped to 416 by Monday. The sheriff, meanwhile, argued the high number of infections was because the jail was testing everyone, even those who were asymptomatic.

Even the old sheriff knows how that works.

We are now in a society that frees prisoners, even violent felons, for the purpose of proper social distancing.

So, what to do about the LTC's? I don't know. Seems better to put them jail.

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1 minute ago, OftenWrong said:

Yeah. What to do about them? Not much apparently.

We could try a similar approach to what they are doing for prisoners. Too many people crammed into jails, and it's unsafe for the virus, so let at least 50% of them go.

California officials blast court ruling to reduce Orange County jail population

Article makes some good points.
Sheriff Don Barnes pushed back against the Orange County Superior Court, which ordered the reduction of the county's jail populations by 50% on Friday in an effort to achieve proper social distancing.

Judge Peter Wilson wrote “deliberate indifference to the substantial risk of serious harm from COVID-19 infection to … medically vulnerable people in custody violates their rights," according to KCBS-TV of Los Angeles.

Barnes announced an outbreak in the jails that stood at 138 cases on Friday, before infections jumped to 416 by Monday. The sheriff, meanwhile, argued the high number of infections was because the jail was testing everyone, even those who were asymptomatic.

Even the old sheriff knows how that works.

We are now in a society that frees prisoners, even violent felons, for the purpose of proper social distancing.

So, what to do about the LTC's? I don't know. Seems better to put them jail.

It's just not for the prisoner's safety. The guards and staff can easily get infected and spread it to the general public. 

The US has an jail population problem anyway. I wouldn't be worked up if non-violent felons get their sentences shortened because of COVID-19. 

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1 minute ago, Boges said:

It's just not for the prisoner's safety. The guards and staff can easily get infected and spread it to the general public.

How is it not so in the LTC's?

But let's face it... let's be Frank. We know why the government really doesn't give much of a care what happens in the LTC's, why it has been neglected. All of them are dying. It's unconscionable...

 

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3,500 deaths reported yesterday in the US. At an average of 2,000 deaths a day (accounting for the previously mentioned weekend lul), they'll reach 400,000 deaths before February. 

As an a side. Canada is panicking with 100-150 deaths a day. 

 

 

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Covid-19: What are the excess deaths?

What with all the noise and screaming we hear in the media, it is impossible to understand the information about Covid-19 in context. The overwhelming media content leads to disinformation and more confusion, and bad decision making.

Simple question then- how many excess deaths have their been? Compared to normal. PS, death, is normal.

Data from statcan.gc.ca
There were more than 7,500 excess deaths across Canada from March to the start of June 2020, which aligns closely with the 8,345 deaths caused by COVID-19 over that same period. By July, the weekly number of deaths was within the range of what would be expected had there been no pandemic. At the national level, no excess mortality was observed through to the end of September. British Columbia was the only province to record consecutive weeks of excess deaths in August and September, which may reflect increases in the number of deaths due to accidental overdoses.

Provisional death counts and excess mortality, January to September 2020

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On 12/22/2020 at 9:32 AM, oops said:

There are currently 77,859 active covid19  cases in Canada. The WHO advice is to isolate the 0ne in 485 people in Canada that have the virus, do the contact tracing, isolate their contacts, and set the rest of the people free.

People can transmit the disease before experiencing symptoms and requiring a test. 

The growth in cases indicates that isolating only people with positive tests doesn't really work. 

Not that I expect a lockdown to work either. But it may keep the Healthcare system from collapsing. 

I hope, in the future, governments immediately lockdown travel to and from any country that has a similar disease. We as a species have proven that we are incapable of controlling the spread of a highly communicable disease. 

Edited by Boges
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1 hour ago, Boges said:

People can transmit the disease before experiencing symptoms and requiring a test. 

The growth in cases indicates that isolating only people with positive tests doesn't really work. 

Not that I expect a lockdown to work either. But it may keep the Healthcare system from collapsing. 

I hope, in the future, governments immediately lockdown travel to and from any country that has a similar disease. We as a species have proven that we are incapable of controlling the spread of a highly communicable disease. 

You're assuming that highly communicable diseases can be controlled.  I'm not sure they are.  But they're especially hard to control when the country of origin holds off of making the rest of the world aware of the situation.  A U.K. study suggests that 95% of the pandemic could have been prevented if China disclosed much earlier, and shut down travel from their end.

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