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When Will Covid End? We Must Start Planning For a Permanent Pandemic


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Brace yourself!  A recent Bloomberg opinion piece by Andreas Kluth throws shade on the notions that are continually recirculated that yes, Covid-19 is bad, but don't worry, it will be over soon and then we can go back to normal. BECAUSE:

With coronavirus mutations pitted against vaccinations in a global arms race, we may never go back to normal.

Conservatives and rightwingers of all stripes hate change, but no matter how much conservatives cry and throw tantrums, along with throwing their toys at us for being in the way or perceived to be in the way of what they want, the world isn't going back to the way it was in 2019! 

Anyway, back to Bloomberg:

Quote

 

For the past year, an assumption — sometimes explicit, often tacit — has informed almost all our thinking about the pandemic: At some point, it will be over, and then we’ll go “back to normal.”

This premise is almost certainly wrong. SARS-CoV-2, protean and elusive as it is, may become our permanent enemy, like the flu but worse. And even if it peters out eventually, our lives and routines will by then have changed irreversibly. Going “back” won’t be an option; the only way is forward. But to what exactly?

Most epidemics disappear once populations achieve herd immunity and the pathogen has too few vulnerable bodies available as hosts for its self-propagation. This herd protection comes about through the combination of natural immunity in people who’ve recovered from infection and vaccination of the remaining population.

In the case of SARS-CoV-2, however, recent developments suggest that we may never achieve herd immunity. Even the U.S., which leads most other countries in vaccinations and already had large outbreaks, won’t get there. That’s the upshot of an analysis by Christopher Murray at the University of Washington and Peter Piot at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

The main reason is the ongoing emergence of new variants that behave almost like new viruses. A clinical vaccine trial in South Africa showed that people in the placebo group who had previously been infected with one strain had no immunity against its mutated descendant and became reinfected. There are similar reports from parts of Brazil that had massive outbreaks and subsequently suffered renewed epidemics.

That leaves only vaccination as a path toward lasting herd immunity. And admittedly, some of the shots available today are still somewhat effective against some of the new variants. But over time they will become powerless against the coming mutations.

Of course, vaccine makers are already feverishly working on making new jabs. In particular, inoculations based on the revolutionary mRNA technology I’ve previously described can be updated faster than any vaccine in history. But the serum still needs to be made, shipped, distributed and jabbed.

And that process can’t happen fast enough, nor cover the planet widely enough. Yes, some of us may win a regional round or two against the virus, by vaccinating one particular population — as Israel has done, for instance. But evolution doesn’t care where it does its work, and the virus replicates wherever it finds warm and unvaccinated bodies with cells that let it reproduce its RNA. As it copies itself, it makes occasional coding mistakes. And some of those chance errors turn into yet more mutations.

These viral avatars are popping up wherever there’s a lot of transmission going on and somebody bothers to look closely. A British, a South African and at least one Brazilian strain have already become notorious, but I’ve also seen reports of viral cousins and nephews showing up in California, Oregon and elsewhere. If we were to sequence samples in more places, we’d probably find even more relatives.

We should therefore assume that the virus is already mutating fast in the many poor countries that have so far received no jabs at all, even if their youthful populations keep mortality manageable and thus mask the severity of local outbreaks. Last month, Antonio Guterres, the Secretary General of the United Nations, reminded the world that 75% of all shots had been administered in just 10 countries, while 130 others hadn’t primed a single syringe.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-24/when-will-covid-end-we-must-start-planning-for-a-permanent-pandemic


 

 

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Complete nonsense.  There will be no permanent pandemic.  This is panic porn at it's best.  The world is already going to back to pre-covid days.  Take a look at Britain, Israel and the United States for example.  

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Shady said:

Complete nonsense.  There will be no permanent pandemic.  This is panic porn at it's best.  The world is already going to back to pre-covid days.  Take a look at Britain, Israel and the United States for example.  

We'll see what you have to say when the new hybrid strains metastasizing in India that are filling hospitals and killing off younger people and other large populations that aren't dealing with the pandemic (Brazil) make their way back to England and America!

Their controls over vaccine production and distribution ensure their access to large supplies, BUT how effective will they be on new variants that are developing because these greedy bastards have shown such little interest in fighting the spread of contagious new diseases in far flung places!  We'll find out in the fall that Covid-19 won't be over for anyone, anywhere! And they better get back to practicing proper public health practices during major disease outbreaks: lockdowns, screening, testing and tracing the spread of the disease through our populations. 

Some assholes in decision-making positions of power decided that quickly creating and selling new vaccines, along with the development of herd immunity to the infectious agents, would take care of the problem all by themselves. And that's why we've had a half-hearted almost useless strategy of dealing with Covid-19 right from the start here!  

In Ontario, we're in our third wave of the pandemic now and supposedly we're all in lockdown, and that's supposed to solve the problem until the vaccines arrive. But our 'lockdowns' if you can call it that, are as porous as swiss cheese! Walk into a supermarket or a Walmart, and aside from having clothing sections, furniture and appliances taped off, everything is the same as it was before the lockdown! And occasionally a low-paid part time staffer is tasked with mumbling a few quick questions as you enter the store, but even that isn't consistent. 

Real lockdowns would be much more intrusive and constraining, but at least after 3 or 4 weeks, the health authorities would have traced all those who likely have the disease and contained the spread. If our governments - fed and provincial had the guts to shut everything down for a few weeks, as in China, South Korea, Taiwan...even New Zealand, we would have also been able to re-open everything after a month on lockdown, with or without vaccines!

Edited by Right To Left
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I'll tell you one thing, it's much easier to add new safety protocols than it is to remove them. It's easy to get all the chuckleheads in the boardroom to nod in agreement whenever something is proposed under the guise "to improve our safety". But just try and be the guy who says, "It's alright now, we don't need to do these safety checks anymore." Some people are too chicken-shit to say that even when they know it's true. Oh well what's a bit more safely?

So, expect the present level of bullshit to continue just due to inertia alone. Then throw in some good old govern-mental incompetance. And yes I mean, incompetance.   ;)

....

The System is making the best money ever in history during Covid. How do I know this? I just do. But a quick google search does support my asseertion.-

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/12/31/stock-market-record-2020/

 

When investors move their funds into stocks that they see are gaining, the economy shifts and changes direction. It becomes the system's new direction. Another example why covid won't go away quickly, people with great financial influence want this to continue.

 

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MY guess is once we've gone through under provincial government-enforced health protocols and laws once, then watched them eased off again when the health officials told us we were "flattening the curve" and the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic was behind us.............only to see almost identical restrictions come back again in the fall, when infection rates started rising.............rinse and repeat.........now we're in the "Third Wave" and at least I'm not hearing talkingheads yammering on about 'flattening the curve' again this time!

Some monkeys working in high places may have figured out that this disease has become even more contagious, especially among younger people, and possibly more lethal, so now it's back into lockdown again........except it's not really a lockdown here in Ontario. The lockdown rules for stores and most workplaces are only slightly different than they were before. I'm imagining a cabinet meeting in Queens Park asking their panel of experts: how do we do as little as possible and make it look like we are accomplishing something?

Like it or not, dealing with a pandemic looks a lot like dealing with any issues that require changes or major alterations to economic activity and how people move about! There are no loopholes around setting up and maintaining a 3 or 4 week real lockdown, without doing it early, when it's realized just how serious and fast-spreading the new contagion is, than to follow the examples of China, Taiwan, South Korea and New Zealand, which instituted slightly different versions of a hard lockdown without exceptions. 

It's when you make stupid exceptions like closing international borders and bridges to traffic (how most plebes travel), while airports are full of people traveling on international flights all over the world! Because doing a 9-11 landing all the commercial jets in a lockdown would impact the people who count to the ruling class! That's when people get pissed off and refuse to cooperate, and start thinking up or repeating a whole range of conspiracy theories about the disease being fake.....being a scam to restrict us for various reasons, and then to take a vaccine, the longer a disease outbreak goes on and little seems to change, the less people from all beliefs and backgrounds will cooperate...even if we end up with bodies lying in the streets!

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Meanwhile, in the world's current covid hotspot - India, the *official death rate has topped 200,000 and with more sick and backlogged hospitals, and oxygen shortages, the numbers are likely to keep climbing for awhile before international attention focuses on the big flareup with new and even more deadly viral variants.

*unless opposition and/or international agencies make an effort to actually give an accurate count of how many have died so far, most observers are going to be stuck with the ballpark figure of real covid death rates being 2 to 5 or even 10 times the official numbers provided by the government, because of a huge increase in uncategorized deaths. This is even worse than the fudging suspected in New York, Florida and California earlier on in the pandemic.

APRIL 28,

2021COVID in India

 

India did relatively well at the start of the pandemic, prompting the Hindu nationalist government of Narendra Modi to claim at the beginning of March that the country was in Covid-19’s “endgame”.

Today, however, the Covid situation in India, and Delhi in particular, is absolutely dire. State governments in Delhi and Mumbai are now scrambling to reconstruct the temporary Covid facilities they had decommissioned earlier, in the belief that the pandemic had been brought under control.

However, in the space of just 12 days, India’s Covid infection rate doubled to 17%, reaching 30% in Delhi. Hospitals have filled to capacity, with most beds occupied by the young; in Delhi, 65% of cases are under 40 years old.

Six hospitals in Delhi have run out of oxygen completely and medical authorities say other hospitals have just a few hours of supplementary oxygen supply left.

A crematorium east of Delhi had to build funeral pyres in its parking lot to deal with demand. Mortuaries are at full capacity and bodies are left to decompose at home.

A number of people have died while waiting for oxygen, and more than 99% of all intensive care beds are full. The New Delhi High Court has ordered the government to divert oxygen from industrial use to hospitals treating Covid patients.

Indian railways said it now has special trains specifically designed to carry liquid oxygen and oxygen cylinders, named the “Oxygen Express”. Thousands of Covid beds are also being created in train carriages.

India reported a global record of 349,691 new cases on Sunday April 22nd, a record increase for the fourth consecutive day, and 2,767 people dead, as the surge hit the world’s second-most populous country (India has nearly 1.4 billion people). The country’s brittle health care system is now in a state of collapse, lacking the ICU beds and supplementary oxygen needed for seriously ill patients.

read the rest at Counterpunch: https://www.counterpunch.org/2021/04/28/covid-in-india/

So, who's next, as this new disease and its spinoffs ravage the whole world?  Or will we be back to the closed up, isolated kind of living that occurred for years and even decades at a time, when the bubonic plague was reeking havoc throughout Europe, Asia and Africa centuries ago?

 

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On 4/27/2021 at 1:50 PM, Shady said:

Complete nonsense.  There will be no permanent pandemic.  This is panic porn at it's best.  The world is already going to back to pre-covid days.  Take a look at Britain, Israel and the United States for example.  

Given your track record for always being wrong, I would appreciate if you could show a little more pessimism in this case.

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1 hour ago, BubberMiley said:

Given your track record for always being wrong, I would appreciate if you could show a little more pessimism in this case.

Take a look at Britain, Israel and the United States.  Fans in stands!

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9 minutes ago, Shady said:

Take a look at Britain, Israel and the United States.  Fans in stands!

I'm saying I hope you're right. I just wish you would look at your track record and be more negative so you don't jinx it.

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4 minutes ago, BubberMiley said:

I'm saying I hope you're right. I just wish you would look at your track record and be more negative so you don't jinx it.

I have a pretty good track record actually.  Regardless, just look at the science and you’ll come to the same conclusion.

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4 hours ago, Infidel Dog said:

Meanwhile...

Crowds returned to UFC 261 in Jacksonville Florida and masks appeared to be optional:

 

Let's check in on these fans a month from now! Because many of these fans in India have caused shortages and overcrowding in hospitals across India and likewise round the clock burials and cremations now after attending these crowded annual festivals in March:

India’s deadly COVID-19 surge rooted in crowded super-spreader events

India’s death toll from COVID-19 has surpassed 200,000 as a virus surge sweeps the country, rooted in so-called super-spreader events that were allowed to happen in the months after India thought it had the pandemic under control.

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Now India is enduring its darkest chapter yet, with mass funeral pyres, burials and a collapse of the health system compounded by shortages of oxygen, ventilators, and hospital beds.

Fueling the catastrophe were a series of crowded events, like mass rallies by politicians such as Prime Minister Narendra Modi, religious holidays and pilgrimages on the River Ganges, where people relaxed their vigilance and didn’t wear masks or keep their social distance.

The health ministry on Wednesday reported 3,293 deaths in the last 24 hours, bringing India’s total fatalities to 201,187. The deaths and the confirmed cases of 17.9 million are thought to be undercounts.

Now the surge is sending its health system toward collapse. Hospitalizations and deaths have reached record highs. Patients are suffocating because hospitals are using up their oxygen supplies. Fires at overwhelmed crematoriums are lighting up night skies.

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Muslim, Christian and other religious minorities who don't practice cremation, face a similar problem as the Hindu majority:

India infections top 18 million as gravediggers work round the clock

India has reported 147.2 deaths per million, the Reuters global COVID-19 tracker shows, while Brazil and the United States reported figures of 1,800 and 1,700 respectively.

However, medical experts believe India’s true COVID-19 numbers may be five to 10 times greater than the official tally. 

Of course they are! Just from the numbers of deaths, burials and cremations, the real Indian Covid-19 death toll would be more like one or two million. And it's not over there yet! And, the new variants (may still be some undiscovered or unrecognized in India) will be on their way here, if the selfish 'Not My Problem' crowd wants to consider our future.

These new and multiplying Covid variants will become more and more vaccine resistant, or resistant to the vaccines in use today. It will shape up as a neverending battle unless Covid-19 and future disease outbreaks are dealt with at the source......wherever that may be in the world! Any highly contagious diseases will be on our doorstep in a short time, and then it becomes all of our problem!

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I'm not sure what your point is.

India had lockdowns then relieved them as the infection rate lessened just as other countries - Canada for instance - did.

India has different population, cultural and geographical issues though.

Why India then? Why not, say...Sweden? ;)

As to Florida and the UFC 261 effect. It was 5 days ago. The incubation period for Covid is 2 days to 2 weeks.

So far so good in comparison to states of a similar size though. More cases but fewer deaths. Heavily restricted Michigan is the state that needs to worry so far.:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

 

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1. India has never had a nationwide lockdown policy, and the lockdowns that have occurred have been by state governments, with the federal - Modi Government opposing them...saying they are over-reacting (just like deniers over here).  Uncannily similar to Trump's America and the Bolsonaro response in Brazil, which has just topped 400,000.

2. India has a younger population than Canada or the US, and a much warmer climate. So, Modi assumed that because of the relatively low infection and death numbers at the start of the pandemic, they were home-free, until their superspreader political rallies and religious festivals in March got started!

3. Okay, why not Sweden then! Since you're always on Worldometer, I dare you to look up the current Swedish numbers and compare them to similar Scandinavian neighbors like Norway, Finland and Denmark. Norway even closed their borders with Sweden because of their growing infection rates last year. 

According to the Covid-19 dashboard kept up by Johns Hopkins University, both Norway and Finland have less than 1000 dying from Covid-19, Denmark 2,500. while Sweden has over 14,000 dead. Yet for some reason, Sweden is the go-to example rightwingers and libertarian anarchists cite, along with Texas and Florida, as proof that lockdowns and closures don't work.  That's why they want an apples and oranges set of comparisons. 

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They probably did it because their financial system is on life support and they needed an excuse. The only way for them to continue to stay in power is with something that has even more control over us. Like Chinas social credit surveillance for example + a 100% digital currency. And also a much lower global population obviously. 

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Or, it could have been both!  The global north economies (US, Canada and Europe) were already running on fumes by the end of 2019. 

The only reason why it seems nobody realizes we've already been in an economic recession is because of $Trillions created as Covid pandemic benefits...which over here have mostly gone to the top of the pyramid, under the assumption that bankers, brokers and favored corporations will spend the money better than the great unwashed will.

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On 4/30/2021 at 4:00 PM, Right To Left said:

 

3. Okay, why not Sweden then! Since you're always on Worldometer, I dare you to look up the current Swedish numbers and compare them to similar Scandinavian neighbors like Norway, Finland and Denmark. Norway even closed their borders with Sweden because of their growing infection rates last year. 

Why do you assume I wouldn't know about the immediate call to compare Sweden to other nordic countries? It's not like you were the first person to think of it. It's usually the first reaction when lockdown apologists notice Sweden compares just fine to heavily restricted countries.

I'm not sure culture is the best comparable here. Let's try population. Sweden's population is about 10 million. So let's look at the first 3 of 10 million population (more or less) countries going down the Worldometer list.

Czechia = 29,461 total deaths, 31 deaths yesterday

Belgium = 24, 322 total death, 31 deaths yesterday

Portugal = 16, 981 total deaths, with 4 deaths yesterday.

Sweden compares OK to them with 14,118 total deaths and no deaths yesterday.

Netherlands is interesting coming from the same part of the world as Sweden with a 17 million population. 17,221 total deaths and 32 deaths yesterday. 

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18 hours ago, Infidel Dog said:

Why do you assume I wouldn't know about the immediate call to compare Sweden to other nordic countries? It's not like you were the first person to think of it. It's usually the first reaction when lockdown apologists notice Sweden compares just fine to heavily restricted countries.

Really? You didn't notice that Sweden's infection rates and death count is substantially higher than the other Nordic countries that made an effort to stop the spread of Covid in place...if they couldn't completely eradicate it like the far east! 

I could have also mentioned the fact that Sweden passed laws restricting the numbers of shoppers allowed inside stores and patrons at bars and restaurants, long before it was done here....and never even got started in some areas of the US. 

Quote

 

I'm not sure culture is the best comparable here. Let's try population. Sweden's population is about 10 million. So let's look at the first 3 of 10 million population (more or less) countries going down the Worldometer list.

Czechia = 29,461 total deaths, 31 deaths yesterday

Belgium = 24, 322 total death, 31 deaths yesterday

Portugal = 16, 981 total deaths, with 4 deaths yesterday.

Sweden compares OK to them with 14,118 total deaths and no deaths yesterday.

Netherlands is interesting coming from the same part of the world as Sweden with a 17 million population. 17,221 total deaths and 32 deaths yesterday. 

 

Comparing nations just by population size tells us next to nothing about how or why the virus is spreading faster in some than others or killing more in those countries you selected, except that Sweden spends a lot per capita on its state of the art medical and healthcare systems. 

It should be obvious, but what is each of these countries doing to prevent the spread of contagious, deadly diseases, and what do they do to treat those who are sick?

So, for crazy, selfish, chaotic nations whose focus on individualism and even elevating selfishness as a virtue (like America), every highly contagious disease that refuses to offer medical care to the poor and growing homeless populations on the extreme margins.....well, it will just get added to the list of endemic diseases that never go away!

With all of the over-emphasis on vaccines that took off a year ago, when big pharma realized that being first to market a successful candidate for Covid-19 vaccine would be the equivalent and winning a major lottery, the story got lost in our media narratives that over in the east, China, the Koreas, Taiwan, New Zealand and to a slightly lesser extent - Japan and Australia, had already stopped the spread of Covid and were in the process of containing any potential spread LONG before vaccines arrived! 

It should have been a warning sign a year ago, that our medical experts and political reps were talking about "flattening the curve" or slowing down the spread of Covid-19 with the hopes that numbers would continue declining or at least stabilize until the vaccines were ready for market and distribution. BUT, Covid-19 may never reach 'herd immunity' any more than the flu achieves herd immunity.

Some people have better immune response to infection than others, and that's all we will likely have with Covid-19 also. The only hope right now of stopping Covid-19 from spreading like a wildfire around the world, lighting up one country after another in a cycle of decline, followed by more surges of new Covid variants, is if a serious, concerted attack is made against the international corporate structures that have used patents and copyright protections to create monopolies. 

So, don't think it will all just go away this summer...with or without vaccines! Some of us who have a little sense are going to be putting on masks every time there's a flareup in the future, just as travelers to South Korea tell us that during flu season, everyone on the streets of major cities is wearing a mask. And so, people I know who've gone there say they find themselves doing the same thing because it's part of the culture to show you social responsibility to wear a mask to do your part to reduce the odds of transmitting the disease to others.

So, will we follow their example, or continue following the American example of 'I'll do whatever the hell I want and fuck everyone else!!"

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14 minutes ago, Right To Left said:

Really? You didn't notice that Sweden's infection rates and death count is substantially higher than the other Nordic countries that made an effort to stop the spread of Covid in place...if they couldn't completely eradicate it like the far east! 

Yes, really. I really did know about that just as i said I did. Did you really not notice that I said it? Or did you really not believe it. In either case you're really incorrect.

Immediately comparing Sweden only to specific Nordic countries is what mask and lockdown apologists always say when confronted with the fact that while the greater mass of mask mandates and lockdowns were happening in Europe at large but not in Sweden there was no real difference in the effect the Chi-Comm flu had on either group. Some had a large difference in either direction but when you averaged it out it was about the same.

In any case, I'm confused. Are you pushing for more lockdowns and mask mandates or against them. Because if you're pushing for them explain to me why they don't seem to work. Why does the Chi-Comm continue to spread even with them?

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1 hour ago, Infidel Dog said:

Yes, really. I really did know about that just as i said I did. Did you really not notice that I said it? Or did you really not believe it. In either case you're really incorrect.

Immediately comparing Sweden only to specific Nordic countries is what mask and lockdown apologists always say when confronted with the fact that while the greater mass of mask mandates and lockdowns were happening in Europe at large but not in Sweden there was no real difference in the effect the Chi-Comm flu had on either group. Some had a large difference in either direction but when you averaged it out it was about the same.

In any case, I'm confused. Are you pushing for more lockdowns and mask mandates or against them. Because if you're pushing for them explain to me why they don't seem to work. Why does the Chi-Comm continue to spread even with them?

What's Chi-comm?

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Should be simple: you lock down for real; test and trace those who might have been exposed; prevent those who have the disease from spreading it to others, and you don't end mask mandates and other protective measures until the disease is eradicated! 

If those procedures were followed elsewhere besides the Far East, we wouldn't have a global pandemic today! 

And those idiots who want to downplay Covid-19 need to consider that death rates are many times higher than official statistics provided...even over here, let alone in India or African countries where they have no idea whether Covid-19 is spreading or not in some of the poor and more isolated corners of the Congo and West Africa. 

CBC was just running a story on the 12:00 news about a relatively young mother who has cancer, but can't get in and have an operation in the near term because emergency wards are full of Covid cases again! How do we factor in the people who are dying because our decrepit and declining health care systems are putting the lives of non-Covid cases at risk?

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