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Poll shows Conservatives within margin of error


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New Global National/IPSOS Reid poll from Tuesday Wednesday show that the Conservatives are gaining ground.

Liberals 31% (-7%)

Conservatives 30% (+4%)

NDP 19% (+1%)

BQ 13% (+2%)

As well, when asked about some specific issues:

54% of Canadians think that the Liberals are fundamentally corrupt.

50% of Canadians think the Liberals have lost their moral right to govern.

Margin of error is 3.1% 19 times out of 20. 1,012 adults were surveyed.

http://www.canada.com/national/story.html?...984a3acc&page=1

Good news for those a little tired of the Liberals, maybe there is a chance, however small of one, of a Conservative minority.

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That is great news for the Conservatives. If those numbers hold it would definitely be a Conservative minority, given all the votes the Liberals would waste in Quebec.

Best quote from Darrell Bricker, President of Ipsos-Reid.

The public doesn't seem to be prepared to exonerate [Mr. Martin],
Mr. Bricker said.
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The only numbers that really matter are the Ontario ones, as we all know the BQ will pickup in Quebec. The CPC will probably add a few more 905 seats under it's belt, but I don't think it will be enough to be a minority government -- the Liberals will probably beat them by single digit seat counts. Tied at 38% in Ontario, I don't think that will last. They will probably get around 35%, which would add ~10 seats to their total. Any predictions for who will be resigning after the next election?

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These numbers do look good for Harper. My take on this is if Harper gets his minority, then he has to appease the Bloc to get anything passed. Sleeping with the separatists: Albertans will love that.

The anti-Harper innuendo starts already...

IMV, this poll is not that good. The Tories seem unable to break beyond 30 or so. The last time Adscam was in the news, the Liberals dropped about 7-8 points and then gained them back again. The same will happen again.

I'm a little surprised that this poll shows no movement for the NDP (surely they would have picked up a few deserting Liberals). In addition, the Ontario breakdown is critical.

OTOH, this poll makes a Liberal majority government very difficult for Martin and Herle.

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IMV, this poll is not that good.  The Tories seem unable to break beyond 30 or so.  The last time Adscam was in the news, the Liberals dropped about 7-8 points and then gained them back again.  The same will happen again.

I'm a little surprised that this poll shows no movement for the NDP (surely they would have picked up a few deserting Liberals).  In addition, the Ontario breakdown is critical.

OTOH, this poll makes a Liberal majority government very difficult for Martin and Herle.

I think the real story here is in the regional changes.

In Quebec, where most of the sponsorship abuses were centred, Liberal support has dropped 13 percentage points; in vote-rich Ontario, where the next election will likely be determined, the Tories have risen eight percentage points and are in a tie with the Liberals; in British Columbia, where Mr. Martin desperately needs to hold on to seats, voters are turning to the NDP, which has gained 10 percentage points in popularity.

If the numbers stay this way through an election (though I agree things will be back to pre-Gomery levels by the time that happens), we'll see a minority government with even more regional polarization. Not good.

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What would be an interesting situation is if the bloc win a few more seats and the conservative win also a few more seats but still less than the liberal like the poll say.

This would mean that the bloc and the conservative could have a nice majority of a few seats when working together and could decide to override the liberals. But how much time could that work ? who knows :/

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This would mean that the bloc and the conservative could have a nice majority of a few seats when working together and could decide to override the liberals. But how much time could that work?
It would not work. A party that advocates seperation has no business trying to run the country. If Quebequers want to a have a voice in the gov't the should elect federalists.
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These numbers do look good for Harper. My take on this is if Harper gets his minority, then he has to appease the Bloc to get anything passed. Sleeping with the separatists: Albertans will love that.

The anti-Harper innuendo starts already...

I don't know how you figure that's innuendo. It would be a fact that the Conservatives would require Bloc support with a minority, as the ND's and Liberals would unlikely support Harper. I just find it ironic, given the talk in Alberta about separation.

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This would mean that the bloc and the conservative could have a nice majority of a few seats when working together and could decide to override the liberals. But how much time could that work?
It would not work. A party that advocates seperation has no business trying to run the country. If Quebequers want to a have a voice in the gov't the should elect federalists.

If a federalist party could find a vision that canadian and quebecker can agree on, that would be awesome.

I think a bloc and conservative coalition could work on a short term because there are many things they can agree on like less government.

Then the conservative could win some support and call another election.

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newbie

You wrote- " Sleeping with the separatist: Albertans will love that."

Well newbie this is nothing new to the Liberals they even hire them.

But I admit you point out a serious flaw in Canadian politics and this is the forced political relationship between a national Party and a regional separatist Party especially concerning minority government concerns.

The two simply do not jive.

Ontario would be the only other province in Canada that would be able to carry the same regional political weght as Quebec and in my opinion this is unconstitutional as it is simply not fair and discriminates to the smaller provinces.

I have been waiting patiently for parlimentarians or provinces to attend to this problem but yet seems to be unresolved.

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New Global National/IPSOS Reid poll from Tuesday Wednesday show that the Conservatives are gaining ground.

Liberals 31% (-7%)

Conservatives 30% (+4%)

NDP 19% (+1%)

BQ 13% (+2%)

As well, when asked about some specific issues:

54% of Canadians think that the Liberals are fundamentally corrupt.

50% of Canadians think the Liberals have lost their moral right to govern.

Margin of error is 3.1% 19 times out of 20. 1,012 adults were surveyed.

http://www.canada.com/national/story.html?...984a3acc&page=1

Good news for those a little tired of the Liberals, maybe there is a chance, however small of one, of a Conservative minority.

#1 By the time the election is held our numbers will be back where they should be and always should have been: Majority territory.

#2 If the Conservatives somehow did manage to win a government Iraq would all of a sudden start looking really good as a place to live.

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But I admit you point out a serious flaw in Canadian politics and this is the forced political relationship between a national Party and a regional separatist Party especially concerning minority government concerns.

The two simply do not jive.

Ontario would be the only other province in Canada that would be able to carry the same regional political weght as Quebec and in my opinion this is unconstitutional as it is simply not fair and discriminates to the smaller provinces.

I have been waiting patiently for parlimentarians or provinces to attend to this problem but yet seems to be unresolved.

Well, in all seriousness, how does one deal with this problem and still remain impartial and fair to the rest of the provinces/country?

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newbie

You wrote- "Well, in all seriousness, how does one deal with this problem and still remain impartial and fair to the rest of the provinces and country."

That is the one million dollar question.

The most important concern in all of this is what constitutes a province? Obviously there has to be legislation to govern this and this is where our system has failed.

In Quebec's case cultural aspects overides the normal federalistic criteria of other provinces and basically choose to abide by their own provincial self interest.

As far as I am concerned separatist or regional Parties should be federally banned as the way it is the country is being driven away from it's federalistic nature and has created a corrupt political system.

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The key numbers in the poll were from Ontario. With the Libs and the Cons tied at 38% in Ontario this actually translates out to more seats for the Cons then the Liberals will get.

This is due to the Conservative vote having a higher concentration in the more rural, less populated ridings. Last election Libs received 45% to the Cons 32% and the Cons still got 24 seats. Another 6% will push them over the top in quite a few ridings.

Coupled with a loss in seats for the Libs in Quebec I imagine Mr Martin is not too happy these days.

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from: http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

The Conservatives have the support of 31 per cent of Canadians while the Liberals have the support of 28 per cent. (That's a statistical tie given a 3-point margin of error.)

While the Conservatives remain strong in the West, especially the Prairies, they have risen to 35 per cent support in Ontario, tied with the Liberals.

The NDP, meanwhile, now leads British Columbia, while the Bloc Quebecois now hold almost 60 per cent of the francophone vote, virtually guaranteeing victory in all the francophone seats in Quebec.

I believe the Ontario numbers were 35% for both the LPC and CPC. Although we can all probably expect the LPC to pickup a few points, I think that if the election is held before the New Year, the opposition parties could expect to do much better, rather then letting the Liberals choosing when the election would be.

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You wrote- "Well, in all seriousness, how does one deal with this problem and still remain impartial and fair to the rest of the provinces and country."

That is the one million dollar question.

This is absolutly what i think and as far as im concerned there is a few solution. since it seems impossible to ellect a party that would receive the majority of the vote in all provinces, then we have to rethink the way we do politics.

Solution 1)

We give the right to the provinces to opt out of federal programs when they feel it does not fit the regional vision of politics. By the way, that solution was in the Meech accord.

Solution 2)

A more radicals way is to abolish or restrict a few federal juridiciton or totally abolish the federal government and instore a real confederation or something similar to switzerland. Or to instore autonomous regions like china/hong-kong/taiwan/tibet and etc..

Solution 3)

The most radical way is to separate the regions and creating other country's.

-------------------------------

Those are the 3 solutions proposed by the 3 most popular provincial party in quebec. Solution 1 and 3 both failled twice and the second, nobody never had enough energy to try to convince people to it, most of the time they ended up supporting one of the 2 others solutions.

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Those are the 3 solutions proposed by the 3 most popular provincial party in quebec. Solution 1 and 3 both failled twice and the second, nobody never had enough energy to try to convince people to it, most of the time they ended up supporting one of the 2 others solutions.

I honestly think that unless one of those paths is taken, Canada won't exist in the same way in 10 years. Canada is currently limping along, and it wont take much to knock it over completely. With increasing regionalization of votes, I really dont see any other solution but to change the way the Feds work -- and no party is really preparing to open the Pandora's Box of constitutional change.

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New Global National/IPSOS Reid poll from Tuesday Wednesday show that the Conservatives are gaining ground.

Liberals 31% (-7%)

Conservatives 30% (+4%)

NDP 19% (+1%)

BQ 13% (+2%)

As well, when asked about some specific issues:

54% of Canadians think that the Liberals are fundamentally corrupt.

50% of Canadians think the Liberals have lost their moral right to govern.

Margin of error is 3.1% 19 times out of 20. 1,012 adults were surveyed.

http://www.canada.com/national/story.html?...984a3acc&page=1

Good news for those a little tired of the Liberals, maybe there is a chance, however small of one, of a Conservative minority.

Here is a basic lesson in current Canadian politics...

When LIBERAL CORRUPTION is news, Conservative poll numbers go up.

When HARPER CONSERVATISM is news, Liberal numbers go up.

It is that easy!!!

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ScottBrison:
#2 If the Conservatives somehow did manage to win a government Iraq would all of a sudden start looking really good as a place to live.

Well, since about a million Iraqi expats have moved back to Iraq since the liberation...

I keep forgetting what a paradice it is there, what with the Americans running around busting down doors arresting people, bombs going off, etc. Ahhhhh sounds like a nice vacation spot.

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I believe the Ontario numbers were 35% for both the LPC and CPC. Although we can all probably expect the LPC to pickup a few points, I think that if the election is held before the New Year, the opposition parties could expect to do much better, rather then letting the Liberals choosing when the election would be.

There will not be an election before the new year, I'm not being difficult I'm stating a fact. Even if the government were defeated on the first opposition day Martin wouldn't want to have an election over Christmas and would likely adjourn parliament and call the election early in the new year.

Everyone is fixated on this 36 day number, but all the law says is that it needs to be at least 36 days.

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Bakunin;

Will anything ever penetrate? Canada is already MORE decentralized than Switzerland. Is there any hope for this nation at all when no matter how obvious the truth there are still a huge number of people like you who can believe only slime,

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August:

You forget the greater maturity of Ontarians. They will be voting for neither a Quebecker or an Albertan. They will be voting for policy.

That will mean something close to a majority Liberal government. With the pick-up of a couple of Quebec seats they may go over the top.

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