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Liberal Votes Up for Grabs


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Canadians are looking for alternatives to the Liberals. I think the polls are wrong. As they say, Liberal support with Paul Martin is a mile-wide but an inch-thick.

In Quebec, the BQ will gain seats. The Tories will at least get two more seats in Alberta, and perhaps more in Ontario.

Am I wrong in thinking that the NDP could do very well in the next federal election? Urban voters in English-Canada may well vote NDP, rather than Liberal this time. The federal NDP may be looking at a major breakthrough, depending on how the campaign goes.

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Urban voters in English-Canada may well vote NDP, rather than Liberal this time. The federal NDP may be looking at a major breakthrough, depending on how the campaign goes.
I believe the conservatives could pull off a majority with as little as 35-37% of the popular vote because of the way that the party support is distributed across the country. A two way split between NDP and Liberals would hand most of the 905 ridings to the Conservatives.
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As always, the spectre of vote-splitting between Liberal and NDP candidates will be a prominent theme in Liberal campaign rhetoric. They'll do their best to scare NDP voters into voting Liberal as a means of fending off the Conservatives.

But Jack Layton's personal popularity, and the NDP's somewhat successful term in office might reduce that effect this time around. It might be harder to convince NDP supporters to vote Liberal this time than it has been in previous elections. We shall see.

-k

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Wrong Scotty, you should have picked B: the conservatives and NDP. The Libs stink to high heaven and it's finally becoming plain to Joe Canadian. Hard core liberals will always cling to their party regardless of all the billions they waste and the fibs they tell about it.

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Canadians are looking for alternatives to the Liberals.  I think the polls are wrong. As they say, Liberal support with Paul Martin is a mile-wide but an inch-thick.

In Quebec, the BQ will gain seats.  The Tories will at least get two more seats in Alberta, and perhaps more in Ontario.

Am I wrong in thinking that the NDP could do very well in the next federal election?  Urban voters in English-Canada may well vote NDP, rather than Liberal this time.  The federal NDP may be looking at a major breakthrough, depending on how the campaign goes.

If the Tories gain two more seats in Alberta, they will have every seat there (I am, of course, looking forward to Landslide Annie's running again!!!)

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It will end up with fewer Liberals, more Tories, more NDP, more Bloc and a formal NDP-Liberal coalition government that can cheer on the sidelines while Quebec does their swan song in Canada.

The Tories can only gain a minority at best, have no coaltion partners, and will generate another election soon after.

Lib-NDP coalition.

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The Conservatives can easily work with the Bloc. As long as they focus on the economic side of their agenda.

Besides, a Conservative minority means a Liberal leadership race, which gives PM Harper at least a year to show his worth.

The Tories can only gain a minority at best, have no coaltion partners, and will generate another election soon after.

Lib-NDP coalition.

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The Conservatives can easily work with the Bloc. As long as they focus on the economic side of their agenda.

Besides, a Conservative minority means a Liberal leadership race, which gives PM Harper at least a year to show his worth.

The Tories can only gain a minority at best, have no coaltion partners, and will generate another election soon after.

Lib-NDP coalition.

Shoop is right.

We think we have three left-wing parties and a right-wing one. But that is an oversimplification of the political spectrum. As long as the issue is not gay marriage, abortion, or the gun registry, in other words, as long as we are talking about provincial independence and economic conservatism, then the Bloc and the Conservatives will work together fine.

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Wrong Scotty, you should have picked B:  the conservatives and NDP.  The Libs stink to high heaven and it's finally becoming plain to Joe Canadian.  Hard core liberals will always cling to their party regardless of all the billions they waste and the fibs they tell about it.

It's funny that the Gomery report PRAISED Paul Martin and Ralph Goodale.... They came out stinking like roses... The Liberals who were involved in the scandal won't be running next time, you can be sure of that....

And I'd rather the billions "wasted" on Canadian citizens than given to Corp Canada.....

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I'm curious for the results of the next election. I think the best the Conservatives can hope for is a minority government and it won't last long. Canadians do not support the Conservatives, if Harper wasn't desperate he would work on building a broad base of support by moderating his party. Winning an election as a reaction to the faults of the natural governing party will not last long. Harper is not the man to build that broad base of support either, he is not popular or charismatic. He knows this, and is hoping to win on the discontent of Canadians, not his platform or personality. Liberals may lose the next election, Martin will be out, he should never have reached his current position. Then I think the Liberals will be forced to pick a real leader, they'll find someone with some vision and excitement, the Liberals will topple the government after a year or so, and then sweep the next election.

Is Brian Toban ever considered a leadership posibility?

The Conservatives can't really want to govern under these circumstances.

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The Conservatives can easily work with the Bloc. As long as they focus on the economic side of their agenda.

Besides, a Conservative minority means a Liberal leadership race, which gives PM Harper at least a year to show his worth.

The Tories can only gain a minority at best, have no coaltion partners, and will generate another election soon after.

Lib-NDP coalition.

Conservative -Bloc? Never happen. The Bloc typically is interested in economic agendas that specifically benefit Quebec, actually agendas that favour Quebec. In reality, at this point in time, the Bloc would favour agendas that do not favour Quebec since they are the quickest route to independence. The Bloc must take advantage of Gomery and a series of weak federal govts and weak federal leaders. The timing could not be better. In knowing this, the Tories cannot be seen to be playing footsie with the Bloc, it would poison them forever. Really they have little in common anyway. It is true that the Tories favour decentralization, but they want it for all provinces while old line Quebec wants autonomy/favoured staus only for Quebec, not for everybody. New line Quebec just wants out, and the Bloc is certainly in that camp.

IMO, Martin is gone gone gone in the spring no matter what happens in this election.

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I am an 18 year old Calgarian and I plan on casting my first ever vote. It will be for the liberals. Some hyped up scandal is not enough to keep me or any informed citizen away their ideology. I believe it would be a bigger crime to waste our tax dollars on things like an enlargened military. I believe it would be a moral injustice to loosen our gun laws. Conservative MPs are always bashing the Liberal caucus for not toughening up sentences for crime. Can we not just look at the States? Primarily California, they have unregistered guns up to their necks and a stiff "three strikes you're out" policy and they have the largest prison population in the entire country.

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I am an 18 year old Calgarian and I plan on casting my first ever vote. It will be for the liberals. Some hyped up scandal is not enough to keep me or any informed citizen away their ideology. I believe it would be a bigger crime to waste our tax dollars on things like an enlargened military. I believe it would be a moral injustice to loosen our gun laws. Conservative MPs are always bashing the Liberal caucus for not toughening up sentences for crime. Can we not just look at the States? Primarily California, they have unregistered guns up to their necks and a stiff "three strikes you're out" policy and they have the largest prison population in the entire country.

There are Liberals in Calgary? :P

Seriously though it is culturally unfair to compare Canada and California. And a strong national defense is important. As for the gun laws, certainly the laws in California are too loose but the gun registry is a billion-dollar failure. It hasn't really solved a lot of problems (as those in Toronto are figuring out).

As for stronger prison sentence it is not a huge issue for me either way and usually doesn't sway my vote. In other words, it really depends on the issue.

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I am an 18 year old Calgarian and I plan on casting my first ever vote. It will be for the liberals. Some hyped up scandal is not enough to keep me or any informed citizen away their ideology. I believe it would be a bigger crime to waste our tax dollars on things like an enlargened military. I believe it would be a moral injustice to loosen our gun laws. Conservative MPs are always bashing the Liberal caucus for not toughening up sentences for crime. Can we not just look at the States? Primarily California, they have unregistered guns up to their necks and a stiff "three strikes you're out" policy and they have the largest prison population in the entire country.

In this free thinking, self serving country we live in, ignorance and stupidity abound and are actually up-lifted by many! When will these people realize the error of their ways?

"Hyped up scandal"...... my favorite part of that speech!! too funny!

Protection of our country is a waste of tax dollars??? OMFG... do you lock your door at night? I swear some people have drifted back to the 60's, with all of this free love & peace crap! War & terrorism are all around us, I for one prefer to be defended. Anyone who thinks we are safe is dead wrong!

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I am an 18 year old Calgarian and I plan on casting my first ever vote. It will be for the liberals. Some hyped up scandal is not enough to keep me or any informed citizen away their ideology. I believe it would be a bigger crime to waste our tax dollars on things like an enlargened military. I believe it would be a moral injustice to loosen our gun laws. Conservative MPs are always bashing the Liberal caucus for not toughening up sentences for crime. Can we not just look at the States? Primarily California, they have unregistered guns up to their necks and a stiff "three strikes you're out" policy and they have the largest prison population in the entire country.

In this free thinking, self serving country we live in, ignorance and stupidity abound and are actually up-lifted by many! When will these people realize the error of their ways?

"Hyped up scandal"...... my favorite part of that speech!! too funny!

Protection of our country is a waste of tax dollars??? OMFG... do you lock your door at night? I swear some people have drifted back to the 60's, with all of this free love & peace crap! War & terrorism are all around us, I for one prefer to be defended. Anyone who thinks we are safe is dead wrong!

Relax Leader, he is 18. I was probably an NDP voter at that age too.

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I am an 18 year old Calgarian and I plan on casting my first ever vote. It will be for the liberals. Some hyped up scandal is not enough to keep me or any informed citizen away their ideology.
I have cast many votes for the Liberals over the years and I also agree with you on many of the issues you raise, however, the corruption uncovered by Gomery is extremely serious even though Martin was not involved personally. Whether, we Liberal supporters like or not, the scandal has tainted the Liberals and made it impossible for them to govern the country effectively because they have lost the respect of over 60% of the population. More critically, the Liberals have lost all credibility in Quebec.

In other words, we need a different group of people in gov't for a while. The Conservatives have many objectionable policies, as do the Martin Liberals. So at some level, I have to be prepared to live with some policies that I don't like. If I have to choose between preserving gay marriage or bring some sanity to the health care system then I choose the health care system. If I have to choose between the gun registry and sending a message to Quebequers that the rest of country does care about integrity in politics then I choose the positive message for Quebec.

The last thing I would say is: democracy depends on their being an alternative gov't. One party rule is bad for the country. There are many talented people in the conservative party that have dedicated their lives to public service - it is time to let them have their chance. If they screw it up, then we can vote them out soon enough.

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For one party rule, Sparhawk, there has to be only one party. We have a few and effective oppositions.

Can you tell me which party now does have the respect of more than the Liberals? That the Liberals have "lost the respect" of over 60% of the voters does not mean very much unless another party has the respect of more.

Whatever %ge I represent has nothing but contempt for this "Conservative" Party. Actually, more contempt than I have for the LIberals.

The old adage applies very well that " In politics, a fool is more dangerous than a villain and must be treated as a villain." These Conservatives are a whole shipload of fools.

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Can you tell me which party now  does have the respect of more than the Liberals? That the Liberals have "lost the respect" of over 60% of the voters does not mean very much unless another party has the respect of more.
I am no fan of the Conservatives but at the same time I am sick of minority governments and I don't want the Liberals to have another majority unless they have been out of power for a while. They need a chance to reflect and figure how their party apparatus was hijacked by a bunch of crooks.

At some level the country is screwed if the Liberals are elected and screwed if the Conservatives are elected. However, having the conservatives elected with a minority would put the shoe on the other foot: they will have to actually govern instead of sniping from the sidelines. If they are a 'pack of fools' as you claim then their gov't will not last long and the Liberals might be able to get their act together under a new leader. On the other hand, the Conservatives might actually do a good job...

Keep in mind that most of the budget for the next 5 years has already been allocated by Liberals so the Conservatives will not be able to embark on radical changes immediately.

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In other words, we need a different group of people in gov't for a while. The Conservatives have many objectionable policies, as do the Martin Liberals. So at some level, I have to be prepared to live with some policies that I don't like. If I have to choose between preserving gay marriage or bring some sanity to the health care system then I choose the health care system.
Sparhawk, I am a fiscal conservative but a social liberal. I am perfectly comfortable with Stephen Harper and the Conservatives. I feel that the economic left dishonestly uses social issues (such as gay marriage or abortion) to scare people away from the Conservatives. If the economic left were honest, they would confront the Conservatives on economic issues.

IOW, I think the essence of Stephen Harper's Conservative Party is smaller, better government.

But what do I know. Sparhawk, you're right. A vote means accepting the good with the bad.

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I mean that's what pragmatic parties are really, they're going to encompass some things you like and some things you don't. Any party that wants to be elected has to have a broad enough agenda in order to gain a wider level of support from the public.

Does the economic left use social issues to gain support anymore than fiscal conservatives; at least in terms of our mainstream political parties? Since our political parties have to address both economic and social issues its difficult to see how these issues can be separatable in terms of elections, campaigning, and the such.

I always had the assumption that things like gay-marriage and abortion brought people who would not necesarrily benefit from a Harper government budget under the Conservative party banner in a much larger way than an opposite type effect.

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The Liberals definitely need a time out. I voted Liberal in 1993 because the PCs needed a time out at that point.

I personally think a Conservative minority would be the best thing for the country. Give them a chance to govern without the incumbent power of a majority. AND it would cause a much needed battle within the Liberal Party of Canada.

The Conservatives hands would not really be tied very much on the budget. It would be their perogative to change the fiscal course of the country if they chose to do so.

I am no fan of the Conservatives but at the same time I am sick of minority governments and I don't want the Liberals to have another majority unless they have been out of power for a while. They need a chance to reflect and figure how their party apparatus was hijacked by a bunch of crooks.

At some level the country is screwed if the Liberals are elected and screwed if the Conservatives are elected. However, having the conservatives elected with a minority would put the shoe on the other foot: they will have to actually govern instead of sniping from the sidelines. If they are a 'pack of fools' as you claim then their gov't will not last long and the Liberals might be able to get their act together under a new leader. On the other hand, the Conservatives might actually do a good job...

Keep in mind that most of the budget for the next 5 years has already been allocated by Liberals so the Conservatives will not be able to embark on radical changes immediately.

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