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westcoast99

Alliance Leading In New Poll

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More brilliant journalism from the Globe and Mail.

I would not wish for any political party to disappear. You can't just wish away political ideology.

If one were to disappear, a new party/movement would form shortly afterwards to fill the void.

Pointless poll from a lousy news service. If it weren't for the Toronto Star, this newspaper would likely be the most read by caged birds.

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As usual, Gugsy, the arguments you provide for the merits of the PC Party of Canada are about as sound and persuasive as the poll you just cited from the G&M. If this is the best you've got, and the best the PCs have to hope for, then I'd start bracing for the day when tears are all you'll have after the collapse of your once mighty and proud party. Hope doesn't win elections. Ideas and organization do. That's what your party needs, not some genius internet poll.

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Can someone explain to me the value of asking such a stupid question?

The Globe should be ashamed of its self - they don't even hide their bias anymore.

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Actually, Greg, its quite common for the Globe to pose a poll question they must know is leading and that might evoke a strong response from online readers.

As someone who works in the medium, you know that such polls are often meant more for attracting clicks on the site than for any valid opinion assessment.

What amazes me is that Gugsy would actually cite it in support of the arguments he's been making all this time. What does that say about his arguments?

I am surprised as you are, however, how left the Globe has come in recent years. As an example, and in support of the forum topic I created recently, they just published a whole spat of columns critical of Eves and praiseworthy of McGuinty. Its almost like they are in competition with the Toronto Star to attract as many Left-leaning readers as they can. Its no wonder Canadians have become so passively Left on so many important issues. Look at what so many of them are reading!

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I agree it's a stupid question. But it does highlight the fact that the Canadian Alliance just is not a popular party.

One should always question the accuracy of online polling. There is absolutely nothing scientific nor realiable about results like this. A class of properly motivated kindergarden students could easily manipulate this poll to report any results they wish.

No, votes win elections. I think the Canadian Alliance has the idea all wrong. They have taken every action that is unpopular with Canadians lately.

We need examples Gugsy, sweeping generalizations mean nothing.

Politicians are supposed to work for the people, not against them.

What are you talking about?

The alliance just does not have the support to ever win an election, and they should be worried about losing their official opposition status.

Another statement that lacks any crediable evidence.

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I agree it's a stupid question. But it does highlight the fact that the Canadian Alliance just is not a popular party.
If you agree it's a stupid question, then how does it highlight your point? As usual, your logic often leaves much to be desired.

Further proof of this:

No, votes win elections. I think the Canadian Alliance has the idea all wrong. They have taken every action that is unpopular with Canadians lately.

Politicians are supposed to work for the people, not against them.

The alliance just does not have the support to ever win an election, and they should be worried about losing their official opposition status.

Tell me how any of this actually makes any sense. Don't you think you should at least try to provide well constructed arguments in support of your beliefs, instead of a string of rambling sentences and assertions?

Oh, I forgot. You're a federal PC. That's all they've been giving us for the last decade. Who better exemplified this fact than Joe Clark. And, from the looks of it so far, Mackay makes Joe Clark look like Winston Churchill. I guess you're just a product of your party, where vision and common sense were abandoned long before it took Joe Clark 2 years to decide to run for a seat in Parliament.

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Online polling is generally inaccurate, yes. However actual polls from Ekos, Enivronics, Ipsos-Reid, Compas all show the Alliance on decline at around 10-12% in national polls.

Polls have shown that Canadians want public health care. The Alliance has made it their policy to move towards some privatization of our health care system.

Edited by Gugsy

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O.K. at least you're putting in some effort for a change.

1. Online polling is generally inaccurate, yes. However actual polls from Ekos, Enivronics, Ipsos-Reid, Compas all show the Alliance on decline at around 10-12% in national polls.
Online polling is generally accurate? Where in the world does that come from?

Furthermore, the polls aren't as consistent as you state. And since when does 12% mark a decline for the Alliance. It wasn't all that long ago that people were writing off the party entirely. And 12% for the Alliance still means more seats for the Alliance than 20% does for the PCs. That is simply the reality of the electoral landscape in this country. When will people start acknowledging that in their analysis of the prospects of the parties?

2. Just because a party takes positions on an issue that deviates somewhat from opinion polls doesn't mean they are in jeapardy of losing electoral support. Polls on issues are volatile and subject to change.

The same people who accuse the Alliance of being stubborn on policy are the first ones to accuse it of flip-flopping when they change. Remember the whole flat-tax issue in the last election?

how can the Alliance expect to gain support when they are making policies that are very unpopular with the people. They're in opposition, not government, they cannot afford to lose support.
Since when are mid-term opinion polls an example of losing support? You yourself cited the importance of votes in winning elections. If opinon polls are all that mattered, Dalton Mcguinty would be the clear favourite for RE-ELECTION in the Ontario campaign.
Look at the polls there. In the past 2 years, the Alliance has gone from 8-11% down from 26% in the 2000 election. I agree that mid-term polls are not as powerful as polls come election time, but I have serious doubts that the Alliance is somehow going to magically pick up the 30% they will need to form a government.
The number 8-11% is misleading. You should know better. And if mid-term polls are not powerful, why do you use them to justify the magical opinions you share with us so often.

And you doubt the Alliance is going to magically pick up the 30%. Isn't that what they have been doing for most of their entire existence? They hover at about 13%. Then vault upwards when the it really matters.

Hope can only take you so far. Reason has to take you the rest of the way.

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Greg, typically I admire and respect that you have stayed out of discussions here, trying not to be biased or leaning towards any organization, that's what makes these forums better than any other.

You're exactly right, I do try to stay out of discussions to avoid bias. However I do reserve the right to request posters post in a proper manner. Just as a moderator would in any public debate, it's my job to make sure that unsubstantiated statements are challenged and explained.

This has nothing to do with bias, it has everything to do with providing sufficient evident for the statements we all make. I make the same demands of everyone here, regardless of their political affiliation.

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I voted Liberal for the very first time in my life!!!! :P

Seriously, I'll tell you why the Alliance is getting demolished in this poll..... There's a daily newsletter published by Joe Hueglin, a former MP from the Niagara area, which always brings to the forefront polls such as this. Then the members go out and wildly vote away.

What ticks me off the most is that here we have what may be the last chance to get a merger between the two parties, and instead of registering dissatisfaction with the Liberals (It's OK to wish them away, since the Liberal Party of canada does not have a political philosphy beyond say whaetever it takes to win, then do whatever we want to once elected), these PC fanatics go out on a destroy the Alliance kick. Very stupid.

Here's how it appeared in that newsletter "The Daily Digest"

There's an interesting poll on the Globe & Mail web site this morning.

"If you had the power to make one of Canada's political parties disappear,

which one would you choose?"

Paul Merriam

Green Tory <grin>

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/frontpage

THE ALLIANCE IS WINNING ... 7 X AS MANY NEGATIVE VOTES AS CONSERVATIVES.

ANY BODY CARE TO MAKE THAT 8 X AS MANY OR 9?

If you had the power to make one of Canada's political parties disappear,

which one would you choose?

Alliance        7731 vote s  (35 %)

Bloc            5993 vote s  (27 %)

Conservatives  1042 vote s  (5 %)

Liberals        5459 vote s  (24 %)

NDP            1860 vote s  (8 %)

Other    197 vote s  (1 %)

Total Votes: 22282

Great way to build goodwill guys! Guess you like Liberal governments....

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Neal,

You're exactly right. The worst attacks on the Alliance have come from the PCs, not the Libs. And this has been a huge barrier to cooperation. Instead of addressing grievances, they stubbornly hold on to the belief that they have done nothing wrong, and that fellow conservatives in the Alliance are the worst thing for Canada since Diefenbaker dumped all that wheat into the Ocean.

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Progressive Conservative: 1,262 (5%)

Baby! Baby! Look at that, numbers to make me cry for joy!

NDP: 2,158 (8%)

This should be higher, I have no time for commies!

Liberal: 6,115 (22%)

I'm surprised they aren't at the top

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Oh yea! Party on...
Great, another genius PCer. That's all we need on these boards: another Tory with the gift of persuasion.

Only kidding. Good to have you around (if only to keep proving the PC way as the wrong way - Again, kidding). Cheers.

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What ticks me off the most is that here we have what may be the last chance to get a merger between the two parties, and instead of registering dissatisfaction with the Liberals (It's OK to wish them away, since the Liberal Party of canada does not have a political philosphy beyond say whaetever it takes to win, then do whatever we want to once elected), these PC fanatics go out on a destroy the Alliance kick.  Very stupid.

Here's how it appeared in that newsletter "The Daily Digest"

You and me both, bro.

I would be happy if both parties would just agree not to attack each other and use their limited resouces against the federal liberals instead.

But even this seems impossble evidenced by such small-mindedness.

Do you have a link to the Daily Digest? I can't seem to find one.

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I think they should unite...It would be for the better good of the country, isn't that what becoming a politician is fundamentally about, helping people (I know this is going to open up a bag of worms and you are all going to give your views of why politicians get into in the first place...)

BTW - I think the NDP should be squashed...but then again...the NDP who?

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This has nothing to do with bias, it has everything to do with providing sufficient evident for the statements we all make. I make the same demands of everyone here, regardless of their political affiliation.

I agree completely, and thank you for challenging my posts. I hope I've explained it adequately.

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The worst attacks on the Alliance have come from the PCs, not the Libs. And this has been a huge barrier to cooperation.


You're right. Edited by Gugsy

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I'n not exactly sure where all this merger business is coming from. This next election is what both the PCs and the Alliance should be looking forward to. Its their last chance to prove their worth to Canadian voters. The fact that some are talking about it I think comes from two factors: 1)PCers who know they go into the next election with a long shot at significant improvement, despite Gugsy's assertions otherwise. 2)CAers who are losing their nerve and don't like the idea of another Liberal majority.

I don't think any merger is going to take place before the next election that will change Liberal fortunes. There is just not enough time. Co-operation with candidates might be possible, but I wouldn't even be surprised if that doesnt' happen. More likely is some kind of truce, since party doners have lost all patience with the sniping thats gone of for the last few years. And that can only help the Alliance, since much of the venom directed towards it has come from the PC's.

I really do think - and I know I'm gonna hear it from Gugsy - that the PC Party is in a lot of trouble. All signs point in that direction - even the polls. Like I have said, even 20% is not gonna gain them more seats, in all likelihood. They have a very inexperienced leader who has an extraordinary amount of work to do to get the party in any kind of shape for another election. And I think Harper is ready for whatever might come his way.

Frankly, this is one Alliance supporter who thinks we go into the next election in very decent shape. The party is as organized as its ever been. It has a clear message which I think Canadians are open to in a well expressed election campaign. The party has money. The leader speaks very good french. We go in without high expectations - always a plus for any party. I think Harper has a plan. And the base will be there- which will mean official party status next time around.

Whatever happens, the Alliance is in pretty good shape right now - and things can only get better. And if the PC's aren't up to the job, there will only be one party on the Right and all this unity discusion will be pointless.

As Alliance supporters, I don't think we should squander everything the party has worked for in some rash hope that a magical unity party can do the job for the next election.

We've got something. It'll take us through this next electoral season. There is no reason to panic. Let the PC's do it. I really do think they have much more reason for concern. Its one of the reasons some of them are bringing up merger. And, guess what? The leadership spokesman has already said no. Its not gonna happen.

The Right is too fractured still for unity. This forum is an example of it. The next election will settle a lot. I think the Alliance goes into it with nothing to lose.

We have the ideas. We have the organization. Merger is too late. Lets just ride the horse we have. The worst that can happen is that real merger will wait until after the next election. The best that can happen is that the values and principles of the Alliance will establish themselves with a strong showing. There is more upside than down. I don't see the reason for all the long faces.

And, any way you look at it, things will play themselves out on the Right. Lets do it with a stong Alliance effort! ;)

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How many of those 10,000 votes came from PC supporters do you think?

There are a whole 20,000 of them left in the country that spend a lot of time "Wishing the Alliance would dissapear".

You better get all the mileage you can get out of the 3 month old polls.

Care to make a bet about the next set of polls?

The PC's lukewarm fence sitting hide under a rock stance on same sex marriages isn't going to raise there numbers.

So crow all you can now.

You might just be eating crow very shortly.

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The latest same sex marriage polls are putting it at a (52 against) (42 for) split.

What political choice does the 52 against have?

What political choice(s) does the 42 for split have?

The PC's position (this week) is that they want to eliminate marriage from the government and let the churches worry about it themselves. Peter is allowing an open vote, but is making it his mandate to convince the other 14 MP's to move to his position.

Are you happy with that? You think Canadians will be beating a path to your door with that strategy?

Or is the REAL PC strategy just fence sitting, and hoping the Alliance falls on its face? Do nothing and hope the other guys get labelled as wackos.

In my opinion, thats a dangerous move, and will leave the PC's sitting about the same as before. They will lose a little of the Against vote, and pick up a little of the soft For vote.

Time will tell.

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Just a sidenote.

The Alliance has the largest membership numbers of any federal party.

The Alliance has the largest amount of funding from private contributions of any federal party.

Does that not tell you more than any poll?

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