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jdobbin

Recession

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Yes there are lots of jobs out there at minimum wage. A large resort is offering present employees monitory incentives to help bring in new employees. The problem is you have to have a car to get to these jobs and housing is very expensive in this high end vacation area. How anyone can live and work on even $10 is beyond me. And a lot of the jobs are part time so people are working at two jobs. In our area Tim Hortons and equvilant jobs are being filled by women in their late 50s and 60s. Some for something to do and others out of necessity.
But isnt that how a culture of people not accustomed to working learns to work? Is it not like apprenticeship?

At my first law job, in 1983, I was paid $10,000 per year (about $25,0500 in today's money). I won't divulge my income, but you can be sure I'm making quite a bit more than that now.

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At my first law job, in 1983, I was paid $10,000 per year (about $25,0500 in today's money).

Inflation is amazing, ain't it?

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Economics are not my thing but having lived my four score years and ten.......

You are 90 years old? And your first (oldest) was born when you were 39?

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It is funny the way the poem the Cherry Tree, had that line in it about "of my 4 score year and 10". Many remember it and yet it is not even close to todays life expectancies, or the times in which it was written. But yes it would be nice to think that 90 years would be a full llife.

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Inflation is amazing, ain't it?
Using a 4% average annual rate, prices double every 18 years. Those are the figures I work from (link) (P.S. - On the basis of those numbers, if my salary just kept pace with inflation I'd be earning about $22,000 this year). Edited by jbg

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At my first law job, in 1983, I was paid $10,000 per year (about $25,0500 in today's money). ...

oh heck, i hope 25k is not the the salary for a newbie lawyer today.

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oh heck, i hope 25k is not the the salary for a newbie lawyer today.
The top firms are far higher. I'm guessing at small-medium size firms in my market they're around $50-$60,000.

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Using a 4% average annual rate, prices double every 18 years. Those are the figures I work from (link) (P.S. - On the basis of those numbers, if my salary just kept pace with inflation I'd be earning about $22,000 this year).

]

So it's $22,000 and not $25,0500 :P

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This week there was several mentions about the credit crunch and the possibility of it causing problems.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

The strong Canadian economy is helping to offset the financial storm that has swept through global credit markets, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said Sunday.

Flaherty told the Canadian Chamber of Commerce that solid jobs growth in the economy, government budget surpluses and falling debt burden as well as the country's role as an emerging energy superpower have helped ease the economic stresses caused by the credit crunch.

"The Canadian economy is the strongest it has been in a generation,' Flaherty told the annual meeting of the Chamber, the country's biggest business lobby group with 170,000 members.

"That fact, along with important initiatives taken by the Bank of Canada and the private sector have supported the functioning of the markets."

And compared to what is happening in the U.S. some analysts were optimistic.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...PStory/Business

We have seen some real separation between Canada and the United States right now," said Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist of BMO Nesbitt Burns. "We still keep chugging along."

Mr. Porter puts himself on the optimistic end of the range of opinion, but even the more pessimistic economists expect Canada will fare better than the United States.

"We're decoupling in the sense that they're falling into a big pit, and we're falling into a little pit," said Dale Orr, chief economist at Global Insight Canada.

Meanwhile in the U.S. the fall out from the real estate market is affecting other parts of the regional economy in some areas.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20798360/

The Sun Belt city of Fort Myers saw real estate and construction grow to dominate its economy, accounting in recent years for nearly one out of every four jobs. That meant the housing downturn hit swiftly here, making it a kind of early and extreme indicator of what might happen to the U.S. economy as a whole.

The effect could be less dramatic in places like Washington, where government contracting and other industries may provide a cushion. What the Federal Reserve is trying to determine, as it decides Tuesday how much to cut a key interest rate, is to what degree the rest of the U.S. economy will behave like that of Fort Myers.

Economists increasingly believe the housing downturn and related problems in mortgage lending will slow the U.S. economy. Barely a month ago, most economists viewed a recession as a distant possibility. Now they think there is more than a 1-in-3 chance that one is on the way -- or even has already begun in cities like this.

"We are in a real estate recession," said Laurance Baer, manager of the Fort Myers-based Baer's Furniture chain, where sales are plummeting. "And we have an economy that's much more tied to real estate than anyone realized."

I believe Canada's problem as shown in the Conference Board of Canada's recent report is that growth is an east-west divide. Ontario continues to suffer in this climate and the pain could last as long as the U.S. slumps.

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I believe Canada's problem as shown in the Conference Board of Canada's recent report is that growth is an east-west divide. Ontario continues to suffer in this climate and the pain could last as long as the U.S. slumps.

And I believe that anybody looking south of the border like tea leaves has made the first mistake long ago....the US housing and real estate market was bid up to false valuations by cheap money (interest rates). Like the dot com boom, false advantages were leveraged by poor business practices (e.g. credit rating firms).

Current events are a healthy correction.

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And I believe that anybody looking south of the border like tea leaves has made the first mistake long ago....the US housing and real estate market was bid up to false valuations by cheap money (interest rates). Like the dot com boom, false advantages were leveraged by poor business practices (e.g. credit rating firms).

Current events are a healthy correction.

Exactly. The real (non-financial) economy is doing extremely well. You don't have unemployment between 4.5 and 5% for years in a row in a bad economy.

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Exactly. The real (non-financial) economy is doing extremely well. You don't have unemployment between 4.5 and 5% for years in a row in a bad economy.

I think looking backwards, I'd say you were correct that the economy was doing well.

Looking forwards, the slow down in various sectors is just beginning to appear. How bad and how long are up in the air.

Ontario is certainly being affected with industries that are geared to the U.S. market.

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I think looking backwards, I'd say you were correct that the economy was doing well.

Looking forwards, the slow down in various sectors is just beginning to appear. How bad and how long are up in the air.

Ontario is certainly being affected with industries that are geared to the U.S. market.

But that is how it has always been....the difference being that Alberta now has sustained tar sands production and high oil prices....also geared for the US market (even more so). Economic power is shifting west in Canada as you have indicated, and this is perfectly normal.

Will this be yet another domestic fracture if the GTA no longer commands top economic billing? Welcome to the "rust-belt"...Canadian style.

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Ontario will have to modernize the manufacturing sector even more with robotics playing a major role. That way they will be able to compete even with the strong dollar. This of course will mean that those without post secondary education will never really find stable employment. I do believe that Ontario is one of the better educated provinces when it comes to work forces, but the kind of needs for those who do not have the education, is to fill those jobs that Alberta has plentiful. We may well see more of a migration from Ontario's lower work force until things in the USA blow over. Slow downs in the paper and lumber industry in Ontario also, has help feul the problems as well.

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I think looking backwards, I'd say you were correct that the economy was doing well.

Looking forwards, the slow down in various sectors is just beginning to appear. How bad and how long are up in the air.

Ontario is certainly being affected with industries that are geared to the U.S. market.

I'm a bankruptcy lawyer and would be one of the first to see a bad economic trend. I do not see this spreading beyond the financial sector into the "real" sector. In fact, the real sector of the economy may benefit to the extent that speculative pricing is driven out of the cost of owning or renting a home.

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I'm a bankruptcy lawyer and would be one of the first to see a bad economic trend. I do not see this spreading beyond the financial sector into the "real" sector. In fact, the real sector of the economy may benefit to the extent that speculative pricing is driven out of the cost of owning or renting a home.

There will be a fall out. Most bankruptcy lawyers are expecting a trend upwards.

http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/09/...cted-to-double/

The default rate for speculative-grade debt in the United States was 1.4 percent in the 12 months ending in July 2007, which is near historic lows. Moody’s said it expects that number to reach 4 percent — which is roughly the historical average — by July 2008 and 4.9 percent by July 2009.

While this is bad news for debt-laden companies and their creditors, it is a ray of hope for corporate bankruptcy lawyers and restructuring advisers, many of whom have been fighting over scraps because of the dearth of big bankruptcy cases.

Who will feel the pain? In a separate report last month, Moody’s predicted that default rates in the U.S. would be concentrated in the packaging, construction, consumer durables and automotive industries.

But if the weak housing sector pulls down the rest of the U.S. economy, the effects could be widespread.

People who think they have bullet proof economies usually find out that business cycles are harder to overcome than they think. Compounded with mismanagement, it can be very painful.

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Vultures are circling. They don't seem to be on the endangered list. Only people trying to make a life are endangered. Why doesn't government help directly? Not create the situations for foreclosures?

Robin

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Vultures are circling. They don't seem to be on the endangered list. Only people trying to make a life are endangered. Why doesn't government help directly? Not create the situations for foreclosures?

Robin

Most foreclosures stem from people purchasing houses they cannot afford. Trust me on that one.

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I'm a bankruptcy lawyer and would be one of the first to see a bad economic trend. I do not see this spreading beyond the financial sector into the "real" sector. In fact, the real sector of the economy may benefit to the extent that speculative pricing is driven out of the cost of owning or renting a home.

Individuals haven't been going bankrupt for several years because of all the credit that's been available.

Now that free money is drying up, the bankruptcies will begin in earnest.

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Most foreclosures stem from people purchasing houses they cannot afford. Trust me on that one.

I think the stats also show that healthcare costs are also responsible for bankruptcies.

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Vultures are circling. They don't seem to be on the endangered list. Only people trying to make a life are endangered. Why doesn't government help directly? Not create the situations for foreclosures?

Robin

What should Government do?

Reward people for making bad economic choices? Prevent them from buying a house they think they can afford?

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Bad economic news today in both the U.S. and Canada.

First a dismal U.S. employment report and then a purchasing manager's report from Canada indicated contraction month over month.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...0104?hub=Canada

The loonie hit some turbulence Friday morning that briefly sent it plummeting to its lowest point since mid-December.

The dollar slid as much as 1.27 cents from Thursday's close, down to 99.65 cents US. That's the lowest point for the dollar in more than two weeks.

The decline was motivated by dismal information from both a U.S. employment report and the Canadian purchasing managers' report.

But by the start of the lunch hour, the loonie had recovered somewhat. It was trading just above par at 100.01 cents US at 1 p.m., nearly a cent lower than Thursday's close.

"This week has been fairly volatile in the sense that we haven't had a return to what we'd call normal liquidity conditions,'' said George Davis, chief technical analyst at RBC Capital Markets.

"There's still quite a few people in the market that are off on holidays and the lack of liquidity has sort of exacerbated the price move.''

The dollar has also taken a hit from an expected U.S. slowdown, which stirs fears that Canada could be shaken up by the rippling effects, Davis said.

On Friday, the U.S. Labour Department released a non-farm payrolls report which showed that a mere 18,000 jobs were created in December -- an extreme drop from the 115,000 created in November and far less than the widespread predictions of 70,000 jobs.

The premiers meet with Harper. I'm sure they will be looking for some help with manufacturing problems.

http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/290908

In November, McGuinty implored Harper to convene a rare first ministers' meeting because of economic challenges.

"Ontario is the second most important manufacturing centre in North America. First there's California, then there's Ontario, and then there's Texas. We have over 1 million jobs in manufacturing," he said.

"We have a strong sector, which is up against extraordinary challenges to be found in the high dollar, the high cost of oil, a sluggish American economy, unprecedented competition from places like Brazil, Russia, India and China."

Harper has been strongly signalling the economy will be a major focus of his attention in 2008, stressing in year-end interviews with media outlets that he's bracing for a tough economic year.

In his interview with the Star, for instance, Harper said this year would be "more challenging" for his government and the country.

"There remains very serious economic uncertainty in the United States and in other parts of the world, and it's impossible for me to see how Canada can be entirely immune from those developments," the Prime Minister said last month.

Edited by jdobbin

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The premiers meets with Harper. I'm sure they will be looking for some help with manufacturing problems.

What help? It's been mismanaged for too long and too much manufacturing has been allowed to be shifted to China. The horses have left the barn.

We are in for *severe* economic pain which cannot be avoided. We were headed for a very long slowdown simply due to demographics. Now, with the US subprime crisis, China outsourcing etc., things are going to be even worse. And now the government wants to act???

The one ace up Canada's sleeve is that the global economy is doing all right and there is high demand for what Canada's economy has long been based on - resources. This means that things will not be as bad here as in the US, but they will be bad.

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What help? It's been mismanaged for too long and too much manufacturing has been allowed to be shifted to China. The horses have left the barn.

We are in for *severe* economic pain which cannot be avoided. We were headed for a very long slowdown simply due to demographics. Now, with the US subprime crisis, China outsourcing etc., things are going to be even worse. And now the government wants to act???

The one ace up Canada's sleeve is that the global economy is doing all right and there is high demand for what Canada's economy has long been based on - resources. This means that things will not be as bad here as in the US, but they will be bad.

That may be all true but the Tories can't win more seats in Alberta. They have them already. Thumbing their noses at Quebec and Ontario could be costly.

And people are likely to be in a snit this summer when gas hits $1.50.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

The price of crude oil will continue to rise -- taking gas prices with it -- despite dropping from a high of US$100.09 a barrel on Friday, according to analysts.

The cost of oil dropped to US$97.91 a barrel on Friday, after U.S. employment reports for December showed lower-than-expected job growth.

The limited job growth strengthened concerns about a possible U.S. recession, which would reduce demand for gasoline.

The drop came one day after oil prices reached a record level above US$100 per barrel.

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